Oil surges 6% 📈Will it repeat 2022 scenario?

Brent crude oil futures (OIL) on global markets rose by more than 6% today, approaching nearly USD 90 per barrel. Oil is now only about 12% away from the “psychological” USD 100 level.

This appears to be a good moment to compare the market’s reaction to rising oil prices with the price spike in February 2022, when Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine. At that time, the scale of the increase was significantly larger. Prices rose from around USD 94 to USD 132 per barrel, representing roughly a 40% increase, which is notably higher than the move seen today.
Currently, oil prices are up around 20% since the beginning of the conflict and if the 2022 scenario would be in play now - the price can rise to $110 per barrel. However, the Middle East is far more important for the global oil market than Ukraine or even Russia. Looking at the chart, we can see that despite the “energy paralysis” at the time, speculative price increases were already halted in March, and prices ultimately failed to return to their previous highs.
At present, a potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, combined with strikes on oil infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates or Qatar that could last for weeks, appears to have significantly greater potential to fuel further speculative upside in oil prices. Much will depend on how long the conflict lasts and whether Iran retains the capability to carry out attacks on neighboring countries.

A key role could be played by China, which relies on oil imports from Iran and may become an economic casualty of the Middle East conflict. The question is whether Beijing will find a way to persuade Iran to refrain from targeting the region’s energy infrastructure and to ensure continued shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the Red Sea, and Bab el-Mandeb.

OIL (D1)

Source: xStation5

Cookie name	Description
SERVERID
userBranchSymbol	Expiration date 1 day
adobe_unique_id	Expiration date 364 days
test_cookie	Expiration date 1 hour
SESSID	Expiration date 1 day
__hssc	Expiration date 1 hour
__cf_bm	Expiration date 1 hour
intercom-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
intercom-session-iojaybix	Expiration date 6 days
xtbCookiesSettings	Expiration date 364 days
xtbLanguageSettings	Expiration date 364 days
TS5b68a4e1027
countryIsoCode
userPreviousBranchSymbol	Expiration date 364 days
_cfuvid
intercom-device-id-iojaybix	Expiration date 270 days
__cfruid
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days

Cookie name	Description
_gid	Expiration date 1 day
_gat_UA-22576382-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_gat_UA-121192761-1	Expiration date 1 hour
_ga_CBPL72L2EC	Expiration date 729 days
_ga	Expiration date 729 days
AnalyticsSyncHistory	Expiration date 29 days
af_id	Expiration date 394 days
afUserId	Expiration date 729 days
AF_SYNC	Expiration date 6 days
__hstc	Expiration date 179 days
__hssrc
_vwo_uuid_v2	Expiration date 365 days
_ga_TC79BEJ20L	Expiration date 729 days
_vwo_uuid	Expiration date 365 days
_vwo_ds	Expiration date 29 days
_vwo_sn	Expiration date 1 hour
_vis_opt_s	Expiration date 99 days
_vis_opt_test_cookie
_gcl_au	Expiration date 89 days

Cookie name	Description
MUID	Expiration date 389 days
_omappvp	Expiration date 3998 days
_omappvs	Expiration date 1 hour
_uetsid	Expiration date 1 day
_uetvid	Expiration date 389 days
_fbp	Expiration date 89 days
fr	Expiration date 89 days
muc_ads	Expiration date 729 days
lang
_ttp	Expiration date 389 days
_tt_enable_cookie	Expiration date 389 days
hubspotutk	Expiration date 179 days
YSC
VISITOR_INFO1_LIVE	Expiration date 179 days
li_sugr	Expiration date 89 days
guest_id_marketing	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id_ads	Expiration date 729 days
guest_id	Expiration date 729 days
MSPTC	Expiration date 389 days
IDE	Expiration date 389 days
VISITOR_PRIVACY_METADATA	Expiration date 179 days

Cookie name	Description
personalization_id	Expiration date 729 days
UserMatchHistory	Expiration date 29 days
bcookie	Expiration date 364 days
lidc	Expiration date 1 day
lang
bscookie	Expiration date 364 days
li_gc	Expiration date 179 days