Summary:
- Australian central bank pledges to reassess the economic outlook when it meets next year
- It admits the past three rate cuts have been working through the usual channels
- Lowe suggests 0.25% is the effective lower bound for rates in Australia
- Aussie could be prone to ‘a sell rallies’ approach
The Reserve Bank of Australian plans to reassess the economic outlook when it meets in February 2020 in order to decide whether further conventional monetary policy easing is required, the December’ minutes suggested. Although the Antipodean central bank still stuck to its view that the past three rate cuts have been working through the usual channels, it added that monetary policy has long and variable lags, therefore there will be a need to make a comprehensive analysis at the beginning of the next year. The bank also signalled that due to a high level of consumers’ indebtedness it may take more time before they boost spending in response to lower mortgage payments.
Let us also recall that according to RBA Governor Philip Lowe the effective lower bound for rates in Australia is at 0.25%, meaning two 25 bps rate reductions are possible before hittis this level. There is also clear the RBA will focus on conventional policy at first before switching to an unorthodox approach once it runs out of ammunition. Nonetheless, Philip Lowe claims it is rather unlikely the central bank may have to resort to such unconventional policy like asset purchases. Taking into account current circumstances there it seems that the RBA is unlikely to reach its inflation aim in the foreseeable future, that would increase calls for further conventional policy easing or even QE-like programs. Market participants are currently ascribing 60% odds for a rate cut in February, and given that we think that ‘a sell rallies approach’ could be used by that time.
Start investing today or test a free demo
Open account Try demo Download mobile app Download mobile appThe Aussie seems to have hit the glass ceiling at around 0.6940. Source: xStation5
This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.