Russian RTS index (RUS50) is losing 6.5% today, although at one point declines reached 7%. Since the last local peak on January 12, the RUS50 contract has already lost 15%, and since the October high the decline has already reached almost 30%. This is all very puzzling when we compare the index with the price of crude oil. The large number of companies listed in the index are linked to the oil and gas sector, and therefore the correlation is usually very high. For a month, however, we have seen the formation of a powerful divergence. Where does such a difference come from?
This is obviously the effect of the threat associated with a potential war between Russia and Ukraine. Speculation about Russia's invasion of Ukraine has been going on since the end of last year. An invasion would actually destabilize markets, but it would also lead to all sorts of consequences. First of all, the certification of the controversial Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline would be stopped. It is worth noting that during today's session all companies included in the index are trading in the red.
The worst performers are Petropavlovsk, which deals, inter alia, with gold, Sberbank due to possible sanctions regarding the SWIFT system and Gazprom.
Source: xStation5
Source: Bloomberg
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