RyanAir shares under pressure amid Middle East conflict 📉

Ryanair Holdings (RYAAY.US) shares have already fallen more than 10% from recent highs and are declining slightly in pre-market trading in the United States, alongside other stocks from the travel and hospitality sector.

Firstly, the market is pricing in the risk of weaker demand for the company’s routes during the summer season amid concerns about the security situation and the potential loss of routes in the Middle East and Turkey. The outlook for travel to Cyprus, Turkey, Egypt, or even the Greek islands (Aegan Sea; East-Mediterranean Sea) has also become more uncertain. A potentially weaker tourism season in 2026 - combined with pressure from rising jet fuel prices and a more cautious consumer (possibly preferring shorter holiday trips) is weighing on sentiment, despite the company’s recently reported very solid results.

Is a strong start to the year not enough?

February confirmed that demand for Ryanair’s services at the beginning of the year remained exceptionally strong. The airline carried 13.3 million passengers, representing 6% year-over-year growth and a clear acceleration compared with 12.7 million passengers in January. This is an important signal, as Ryanair is not only expanding year over year but is also maintaining a very strong start to 2026.

• Importantly, the increase in traffic did not come at the expense of aircraft utilization. The load factor remained at a high level of 92%, stable year over year and improving sequentially from 91% in January. In practice, this reflects a very healthy operating mix: more passengers, more flights, and aircraft that remain almost fully booked.
• Ryanair is expanding its operations in a controlled and economically rational manner. In February, the airline operated more than 75,000 flights, compared with 73,000 in January, confirming increased capacity and readiness to absorb strong demand. In Ryanair’s model, this is particularly important because the company’s advantage comes not only from low ticket prices but also from the ability to quickly deploy additional capacity where demand and profitability are strongest.
• Ryanair’s business model continues to benefit from a fundamental cost advantage that competitors in Europe find difficult to replicate. In the fiscal year ending in March 2025, the airline carried 200.2 million passengers, growing 9% year over year and becoming the first airline in Europe to exceed 200 million passengers in a single year. This is not merely a function of scale — it demonstrates that the ultra-low-cost model continues to work even in a demanding cost and competitive environment.
• From a strategic perspective, Ryanair remains the benchmark for low-cost aviation in Europe. As the company is now the largest low-fare airline in the world by passenger traffic, investors increasingly view it not as a traditional airline but as a mass mobility operator across Europe. Such a position provides significant negotiating leverage with airports, service providers, and indirectly with competitors.
• Data for the first nine months of fiscal 2026 remain consistent with this narrative. Passenger traffic increased 4% year over year to 166.5 million, indicating that the growth is not the result of a single strong month but rather part of a broader trend. Ryanair continues to deliver scale, which in its business model typically translates into strong operating leverage.
• Another positive signal for the market was the upgrade of the traffic outlook for fiscal 2026. The company now expects 208 million passengers, compared with the previous forecast of 207 million, implying 4% annual growth. While the scale of the revision itself is modest, investors are now concerned that the war in Iran could significantly disrupt this target in the coming months.
• Another key element of the Ryanair story is Boeing. Improved availability of aircraft deliveries from Boeing allows the airline to launch additional capacity more quickly and monetize strong demand during peak travel periods. For Ryanair, the fleet is not merely an asset — it is a strategic tool for gaining market share.

Ryanair continues to execute its business model almost textbook-perfectly. Passenger traffic is growing, load factors remain very high, the number of flights is increasing, scale is reaching record levels, and the full-year outlook has been raised. The company remains one of the strongest operators in European aviation, although the Middle East conflict introduces new sources of risk.

Ryanair Holdings (D1 chart)

Ryanair shares are experiencing a strong decline and have fallen below the long-term EMA200 moving average (red line). The last time the stock dropped below this level was in April 2025, when the correction eventually reached nearly 30% relative to the moving average. Key support levels now appear to be around USD 60 per share, followed by USD 55, where previous price reactions occurred.

Source: xStation5