Technical analysis: Silver tests a key support level. What comes next?

Silver has struggled to initiate a meaningful upside move over the past four sessions after reaching the $69–70 per ounce area. The price is now testing the 200-day EMA, shown by the red line, and if this level holds, another 1:1 bullish impulse toward roughly $77 per ounce could follow. A break below $68 per ounce, however, could signal a longer period of weakness and open the way toward a test of the $60 area. Gold remains a key market to watch, as silver would theoretically be expected to follow its direction, while the U.S. dollar is another important driver. Tomorrow’s speech by Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole could bring additional volatility to the precious metals market.

Source: xStation5

Commercials: still heavily positioned on the short side

Commercials continue to hold significantly more short positions than longs. Producers/Merchants are net short around 16.1 thousand contracts, while Swap Dealers are net short roughly 28.7 thousand contracts, bringing the combined net short position to about 44.8 thousand contracts. This shows that participants linked to the physical silver market remain heavily hedged at current prices, although this does not automatically mean they expect prices to fall.

Managed Money: funds remain net long

Managed Money remains net long by around 11.7 thousand contracts. Over the past week, funds reduced long positions by 423 contracts but also closed 960 shorts, so their net position actually improved slightly. Open interest increased by almost 5 thousand contracts, pointing to higher market activity, although there is still no clear sign of aggressive new bullish positioning.

Source: CFTC (CoT report, data as of August 18)

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