In the upcoming week, it will be worth monitoring the following three instruments: Bitcoin, USDJPY, and US100. We selected them due to incoming macroeconomic data and their current technical levels. Each is now at a critical point: Bitcoin is fighting to maintain its trend in conditions of low liquidity, USDJPY is reacting to Japan’s largest fiscal package since the pandemic and the possibility of BoJ rate hikes, and US100 sits between Nvidia’s strong earnings and growing economic and monetary uncertainty.
Bitcoin
Bitcoin is once again testing the 80k USD area, and short-term prospects depend on holding the key support zone at 75–80k USD. The market is currently dealing with exceptionally low liquidity — partly due to changes in the Treasury General Account and reduced activity among the largest wallets (whales taking profits). In the upcoming week, investors will focus primarily on spot ETF inflows/outflows and sentiment in the equity market. This week, ETF outflows reached record levels amid a panic-driven selloff.
USDJPY
The USDJPY pair remains in the spotlight as Japan ends the week with a record 21.3 trillion JPY fiscal package and rising inflationary pressures. Both core and headline CPI remain at a high 3.0–3.1%, and both Governor Ueda and board member Koeda are signaling the possibility of further rate increases. Next Friday we will get a key set of data: Tokyo CPI inflation, retail sales, and industrial production — all of which may increase expectations for a BoJ move in December. The market remains cautious, however: the yen is the weakest G10 currency in recent weeks, and investors fear structural JGB selling more than monetary tightening itself.
US100
Although Nvidia met market expectations in its quarterly report, it did not help sustain positive sentiment. The US100 index rebounded after the release, only to return to selling pressure shortly after. Total declines from the highs now exceed 8.30%. Investors worry that new AI investments are being artificially inflated. The government shutdown caused liquidity issues (visible in BTC price action), and opinions regarding a rate cut at the next meeting are divided. In the upcoming week, we will also receive the delayed PPI data.
Daily summary: massive selloff in crypto; Fed cut in December 💵
BREAKING: UoM report suggests a decline in inflation expectations 📌
BREAKING: US PMI beats expectations slightly; EURUSD with no reaction 📌
BREAKING: Mixed results for the UK PMI index. GBPUSD muted
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