In the coming week, we will get key data for the Fed, namely labor market reports and ISM. In addition, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will make its interest rate decision, and in China, the "Golden Week" holiday period begins at the start of October. For this reason, it will be worth watching instruments such as AUDUSD, EURUSD, and CHN.cash.
AUDUSD
The Australian dollar will be in the spotlight ahead of Tuesday's RBA decision. Markets expect the Bank to hold the cash rate at 3.60% while waiting for Q3 CPI data. The latest monthly print in August accelerated to 3.0% y/y. Investors will parse the statement for any signs of potential year-end easing. A cautious "wait-for-data" tone could cap AUD, while a nod to persistent services inflation could provide support. Also worth tracking are China's PMI reports on Tuesday, as AUD is strongly tied to global growth.
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The coming week brings a heavy slate of U.S. releases. These include ISM manufacturing and services reports on Wednesday and Friday, alongside ADP and NFP labor market data on the same days. Softer readings would strengthen expectations for Fed easing and weigh on the dollar. For EURUSD, Wednesday's euro-area HICP report for September will also be a key release.
CHN.cash
Midweek, China begins its "Golden Week" (October 1-7), the annual holiday marking the founding of the People's Republic of China. Lower holiday trading activity could pressure equities. On the other hand, increased spending during the holiday may offset some of this effect. Ahead of the holiday, capital flows in China may accelerate more than usual, potentially boosting volatility. Sentiment will also be guided by Tuesday's September PMI releases.
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