Trump leads the betting polls, the return of risk aversion

Despite the fact that votes are still counted in many swing states, and many of them are currently led by Biden, the market is seeing a significant retreat from risk. The dollar is gaining, yields are sharply down, and the Wall Street futures are also in retreat.

EURUSD is testing the recent local lows. Source: xStation5

Do investors fear the wall with Mexico again? USDMXN at its highest level since October 7. Source: xStation5

The initial increase in bond yields is being offset. Currently, 10-year yields are falling by almost 10 basis points. Source: xStation5

Meanwhile, Betfair shows that Trump's odds of winning are 71%. Previously, this rating was only 32%.

16 April 2026, 14:08

Strong US macro data: jobless claims lower than expected, Philly Fed rises

16 April 2026, 09:56

Hopes for quick Iran/ US talks dashed, but market sentiment holds up

16 April 2026, 07:52

Economic Calendar - Final Eurozone Inflation and U.S. Industrial Production (16.04.2026)

16 April 2026, 07:38

Morning Wrap: Records on Wall Street in anticipation of the opening of the Strait of Hormuz (16.04.2026)

This content has been created by XTB S.A. This service is provided by XTB S.A., with its registered office in Warsaw, at Prosta 67, 00-838 Warsaw, Poland, entered in the register of entrepreneurs of the National Court Register (Krajowy Rejestr Sądowy) conducted by District Court for the Capital City of Warsaw, XII Commercial Division of the National Court Register under KRS number 0000217580, REGON number 015803782 and Tax Identification Number (NIP) 527-24-43-955, with the fully paid up share capital in the amount of PLN 5.869.181,75. XTB S.A. conducts brokerage activities on the basis of the license granted by Polish Securities and Exchange Commission on 8th November 2005 No. DDM-M-4021-57-1/2005 and is supervised by Polish Supervision Authority.

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