US Open: Nasdaq Seeks Direction 🗽 Hims & Hers Shares React to Earnings

• The S&P 500 is trading near the flatline, the Nasdaq Composite is down around 0.4%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up roughly 202 points, or 0.4%.
• Nvidia is gaining more than 1%, supporting the broader market after reports that the company is working with six major asset managers to mobilize more than $500 billion for AI infrastructure investment.
• Oil prices remain relatively stable, with WTI trading near $81 per barrel and Brent around $87. Middle East developments remain the key driver of sentiment in the crude market.
• Iran has signaled that it is moving closer to an agreement with Oman on reopening the Strait of Hormuz, while at the same time ruling out a resumption of direct talks with the U.S. unless certain conditions are met.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said negotiations cannot resume as long as, in Tehran’s view, the U.S. continues to violate the June memorandum and fails to compensate Iran for those violations.
• The key macroeconomic event of the week will be Wednesday’s July CPI report, followed by PPI data on Thursday. The releases will be particularly important after the weak labor market report complicated the outlook for Fed policy.
• The NFIB survey released today showed that U.S. small-business sentiment surprised to the upside, rising to an 11-month high.
• The Fed is facing an increasingly difficult policy mix: higher oil prices are adding to inflation risks, while weaker employment raises questions about consumer resilience and the pace of economic growth. Markets will therefore be watching whether inflation continues to cool sufficiently for the Fed to keep interest rates unchanged.

US100 (D1 interval)

Looking at the US100 chart, the benchmark is slightly lower today, but from a broader perspective it continues to maintain momentum following a sharp V-shaped recovery. Another upward impulse from current levels could take the index toward new highs around 30,500 points. The round 30,000-point level currently represents an important resistance area, while the EMA50 (orange line), running near 27,350 points, remains a key support.

Source: xStation5

Nasdaq 100 – session overview

The Nasdaq 100 remains under modest pressure today, although the market map paints a much more nuanced picture than the headline index performance might suggest. The main positive contributor is Nvidia (+1.44%), whose advance is partially offsetting weakness among other technology megacaps, including Apple (-0.55%), Microsoft (-0.67%) and Broadcom (-0.67%). Sentiment is also weaker toward Alphabet (-1.49%) and Amazon (-1.09%), whose substantial index weights are limiting the Nasdaq’s ability to stage a stronger rebound. Beneath the surface, however, parts of the semiconductor complex are performing well, with Applied Materials, KLA and Lam Research advancing alongside Nvidia. Today’s session therefore looks more like a rotation than a broad risk-off move, with capital shifting between different areas of the technology sector rather than leaving the sector altogether. For the Nasdaq’s next move, the key question is whether strength in semiconductors can broaden to the largest software and internet companies, as a sustainable upside impulse will be difficult to build without their participation.

Source: XTB Research

Nasdaq 100 – top gainers and losers

The dispersion in individual stock returns remains exceptionally high, best illustrated by Nebius (+5.58%) alongside an almost 50% plunge in Monster Beverage, highlighting how much greater volatility is at the single-stock level than in the index itself. Technology companies clearly dominate the gainers, with ASML, KLA, Teradyne, Sandisk, Lam Research, NXP and Applied Materials pointing to continued demand across the broader semiconductor ecosystem. It is worth noting, however, that several of these leaders have already delivered extraordinary rallies – Sandisk is up more than 400% YTD, while Lam Research, Applied Materials and Teradyne have also generated triple-digit returns over longer horizons. On the downside, Monster Beverage (-49.77%) stands out dramatically, with a decline far beyond the Nasdaq 100’s normal daily volatility. AppLovin (-4.52%) and Datadog (-4.27%) are also under pressure, while declines among the remaining laggards are considerably more moderate. From an investor perspective, the key takeaway is the market’s continued selectivity: today’s Nasdaq is less about a uniform move in technology and increasingly about company-specific earnings, valuations and outlooks.

Source: XTB Research

Nasdaq 100 – valuation, momentum and market breadth

The Nasdaq 100 is down around 0.3% during today’s session, but the broader trend remains strong: the index has gained 17.3% YTD and 26.6% over the past year, while remaining only 3.4% below its all-time high. Technology continues to underpin that strength, with the sector up around 25.3% since the beginning of the year, although it is also today’s biggest drag on the index, falling approximately 1.2%. Market breadth is not flashing major warning signs, with around 70% of constituents trading above their 200-day moving averages, although only 55.6% remain above their SMA50, pointing to some deterioration in shorter-term momentum. Valuation remains the key challenge: the Nasdaq 100 trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of around 31.6x, while the technology sector is close to 40x, leaving a high bar for future earnings growth. At the same time, 56% of index constituents are trading higher today despite the benchmark itself declining, suggesting that weakness is concentrated primarily among a handful of the largest companies. The current market structure therefore does not point to broad investor capitulation, but at elevated multiples, further gains will increasingly require confirmation from earnings growth, particularly among the largest beneficiaries of the AI boom.

Source: XTB Research

Company news

• Intel (INTC) – Shares initially edged lower but are already recovering after the chipmaker increased its planned common stock offering from $15 billion to $20 billion. The proceeds will be used for general corporate purposes and to support the expansion of AI-related infrastructure, although the potential dilution of existing shareholders remains a short-term headwind.
• Riot Platforms (RIOT) – Shares are gaining nearly 8% following second-quarter results, with revenue reaching $174.2 million compared with the $154.3 million expected by analysts. An additional catalyst is a 191 MW data center lease agreement with a leading frontier AI lab, reinforcing the narrative that Riot can diversify beyond traditional Bitcoin mining and monetize its power infrastructure through growing AI demand.

Hims & Hers after earnings – growth remains strong, but the market is watching profitability

Shares of Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) are slightly higher, erasing their initial post-earnings losses, after strong revenue growth was overshadowed by weaker profitability. Revenue increased 38% year-over-year to $753 million, while the subscriber base expanded by 21%, showing that demand remains robust across the company’s telehealth offering, including dermatology, sexual health and weight-loss treatments. At the same time, Hims posted a net loss of $86.3 million, with a loss per share of $0.37 compared with earnings of $0.17 per share a year earlier, shifting investors’ attention from the pace of expansion toward the cost of delivering that growth.

The GLP-1 segment remains particularly important, as Hims’ valuation is closely tied to expectations surrounding the company’s ability to participate in the rapidly expanding weight-loss drug market. Following an earlier dispute with Novo Nordisk, the two companies reached an agreement allowing branded weight-loss drugs to be sold through the Hims platform in exchange for Hims ending the promotion of compounded GLP-1 treatments. This strengthens the platform’s strategic position, but also puts greater emphasis on its ability to effectively monetize a rapidly expanding customer base.

The company raised its full-year guidance and expects business momentum to accelerate in the second half of the year, although delivering on those targets remains challenging. The outlook assumes a substantial improvement in profits, particularly in the fourth quarter, which Citi analysts believe leaves execution risk elevated. The international business is expanding exceptionally quickly, with revenue increasing more than 17-fold, largely due to the acquisition of Australia-based Eucalyptus, while U.S. revenue grew 17%. The key question for investors is therefore no longer simply whether Hims can grow rapidly, but whether it can translate scale, international expansion and the GLP-1 boom into sustainable improvements in margins and profitability.

Source: xStation5