US OPEN: Wall Street Holds Its Breath Ahead of Fed Decision and Tech Giant Earnings

American stock markets are bracing for one of the most important sessions this summer. Major indices are opening distinctly negative, and investors' attention on Wall Street is focused today on two powerful catalysts for volatility. First, at 8:00 PM Polish time (2:00 PM ET), the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision, followed by the eagerly anticipated conference of Chairman Kevin Warsh. Second, immediately after the close of the cash session, the market will learn the financial results of leading tech giants—Microsoft and Meta Platforms, which may define the short- and medium-term trend for the entire artificial intelligence sector.

Market Situation and Key Indices

However, a clear division is visible in the market between the technology sector attempting to rebound and the weakening traditional industry. Today, we are observing a noticeable weakening in the "old market," which is illustrated by the sharp pullback in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Nevertheless, the Nasdaq 100 is losing significantly, and the S&P 500 is losing the most in the entire set.

• S&P 500 (US500): Futures contracts are losing about 0.8%. The broad market index attempted to stabilize, but after the first hour of opening, we are observing a distinct pullback and a drop to the lowest levels since the end of June. Options markets price volatility following the Fed decision at around 0.8% for the S&P 500 index. According to JPMorgan analysts, markets assign a 28% chance of a "dovish hold," which would be the best-case scenario for bulls and could trigger a 0.5% to 1.0% rise in the index. However, there is still over a 1/3 chance of a hawkish 25 basis point hike.
• Nasdaq 100 (US100): The technology benchmark is already down 1.4% after an initial rebound during the day. Today, the market is seeing massive declines in South Korea's KOSPI due to the announced huge capex spending by South Korea's SK Hynix. Investors are positioning themselves hopefully for the evening reports from MSFT and META.

Although Teradyne was the strongest stock at the open, it is currently in 4th place, but is up over 260% year-to-date. Source: XTB

• Dow Jones (US30): The blue-chip index is the weakest link today, losing about 0.6% at the open, which later increased to 1.4%. It is weighed down by disappointing forecasts and a weak opening for industrial and consumer sector companies (including Caterpillar and Procter & Gamble).

Chevron is gaining significantly today due to oil, and Coca-Cola is in second place after yesterday's results. Source: XTB

• Russell 2000 (US2000): The small-cap index is down 1.25%

US100 Technical Analysis

Looking at the valuations of the technology index Nasdaq 100, technical and fundamental investors are closely watching the correlated Semiconductor Index (SOX). The SOX index is approaching critical valuation support (the forward P/E ratio has dropped from nearly 28 to 19.8). In the past (at the troughs of April 2025 and 2026), this level acted as strong support and halted sell-offs. For US100, today's session will be an important test for the bulls. US100 is falling below 7430 points, below the last candle shadows, and is recording the lowest levels since June 29. A return above support would be possible if Big Tech earnings surprise very positively, although after last week and the results of Alphabet and Tesla, this will be a very difficult task.

Key Company Information:

• Avis Budget (CAR.US) – Shares of the car rental company are dramatically cheaper by nearly -11.8%. Earnings and revenues generated in the second quarter missed Wall Street analysts' expectations.
• Procter & Gamble (PG.US) – The company is down -2.6% after publishing very conservative forecasts for the current fiscal year. Management drew attention to problems related to spending cuts due to pressure exerted on consumers.
• Vertiv Holdings (VRT.US) – The data center infrastructure provider is down as much as -13.0%. Net revenue for Q2 came in lower than estimates, and supply chain issues are starting to pose a threat to growth prospects in the AI segment.
• Humana (HUM.US) – The health insurer is losing -7%. Although the company showed better-than-expected profit, investors reacted negatively to the maintenance (no increase) of full-year forecasts, which was considered disappointing at this stage of the earnings season.
• Caterpillar (CAT.US) – The industrial giant is down -4.8% after analysts at Baird lowered their recommendation to "Neutral." The reason is the increasing state government interventions targeting data centers (a key growth engine for the company in recent months).
• GE Healthcare (GEHC.US) – The company is posting strong gains of +12% after one hour of the session. The medical equipment manufacturer recorded adjusted earnings per share that clearly beat Wall Street estimates.
• Teradyne (TER.US) – The technology company is one of the growth leaders, jumping over 10% at the open, but later reducing that movement to 5%, on the back of very solid financial results and strong forecasts for the coming quarters.
• Microsoft (MSFT.US) and Meta (META.US) are very close to yesterday's closing levels, a few hours before the earnings release.