As ASML Holding prepares to release its first-quarter earnings on Wednesday, April 16, 2025, investors are focused on how the semiconductor equipment giant will address tariff concerns while maintaining its crucial position in the global chip supply chain.
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Create account Try a demo Download mobile app Download mobile appKey Performance Expectations
- Revenue of €7.75 billion ($8.79 billion), up 47% year-over-year
- Earnings per share (EPS) of approximately €5.7
- Gross margin of 52.5%, improved from 51.7% last quarter
- Net bookings of €4.89 billion versus €3.61 billion a year earlier
- EUV system orders of approximately €1.58 billion
Tariff and Geopolitical Focus
ASML was temporarily spared from the 10% "baseline" tariffs, but sector-specific semiconductor tariffs are expected under Section 232 national security provisions. The company may be partially insulated due to U.S. manufacturing of crucial machine components, including EUV light sources. There are no viable alternatives to ASML's high-end lithography systems, which can cost up to €350 million each. The company's U.S. revenue (17% in 2024) is expected to grow as chipmaking shifts to American soil.
Market Dynamics
China represented 42% of orders in 2024, expected to decrease to 20% this year according to company guidance. However, analysts at Mizuho and Jefferies anticipate Chinese chipmakers will maintain relatively high order levels in Q1 as companies like SMIC continue stocking older DUV machines to hedge against potential export controls.
ASML's biggest customer, Taiwan's TSMC, is planning a $100 billion investment in five American factories. The company's substantial €35 billion order backlog provides significant revenue visibility, while long production lead times create a natural buffer against immediate market fluctuations.
ASML maintains its full-year 2025 revenue target of €30-35 billion. Jefferies analysts suggest sales will likely fall in the middle to upper half of this guidance range, though commentary may be more reserved compared to Q4 due to macroeconomic concerns and AI supply chain uncertainties.
Investors should monitor any guidance changes, order backlog trends, and management's assessment of AI-driven demand sustainability during the earnings call.
ASML (D1)
The stock is currently trading within the consolidation channel it remained in throughout 2023. Bulls may aim for a swift breakout above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level, while bears will likely look to retest this year’s low. The RSI is in a long-term bearish divergence, which could be broken if a higher high is achieved — a similar scenario applies to the MACD.
