BREAKING: BoC holds interest rates in line with expectations

2:45 PM 30 July 2025

Canada - BoC Interest Rate Decision for December:

Actual: 2.75%; forecast 2.75%; previous 2.75%;

Bank of Canada monetary policy report does not provide economic forecasts, cites uncertainty generated by US tariffs. Risk of a severe and escalating global trade conflict has diminished since April. Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem states that the worldwide effects of u.S. Trade policies have been less serious than expected so far.

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Bank of Canada indicates possible rate cuts if weak economic growth further reduces inflation while price pressures remain controlled, with underlying inflation about 2.5 percent. Second-quarter GDP likely dropped 1.5 percent due to major decline in exports, and many economic data show increased excess supply since January.

Canadian swap market sees a 19% chance of a BOC rate cut in September, down from 22% before the policy decision.

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