BoE Interest Rate Decision for May:
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Actual: 4.25%' forecast 4.25%; previous 4.50%;
BoE MPC vote hike for May:
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Actual: 0; forecast 0; previous 0;
BoE MPC vote unchanged for May:
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Actual: 2; forecast 0; previous 8;
BoE MPC vote cut for May:
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Actual: 7; forecast 9; previous 1;
The ratio of votes to cut to maintain was 7:2, which is not in line with expectations, indicating a unanimous decision. The decision was postponed for 2 minutes due to the anniversary of Victory in Europe Day.
- Market rates imply less BoE loosening than in February, showing bank rate at 3.7% in Q4 2025, 3.6% in Q4 2026, 3.6% in Q4 2027 (Feb: 4.2% in Q4 2025, 4.1% in Q4 2026, 4% in Q4 2027)
- BoE expects inflation to peak at 3.5% in Q3 on a quarterly basis, previous forecast 3.75%
- BoE forecasts GDP growth in 2025 +1.0% (Feb forecast: +0.75%), 2026 +1.25% (Feb: +1.5%), 2027 +1.5% (Feb: +4.5%) based on market rates.
The lack of unanimity strengthens the British pound, as it may mean that there will be no consensus for another cut next month. GBPUSD returns above 1.3300.
The GBPUSD pair ticks higher after the BoE decision because of the surprise in the ratio of votes between holding and cutting rates. Source: xStation
