BREAKING: EURUSD ticks up after Eurozone Services PMI data 💡

Eurozone (final reading)

• Services PMI: 50.2 (est. 50.1; prev. 50.1) — marginally above forecast, barely holding above the expansion line

• Composite PMI: 50.7 (est. 50.5; prev. 50.5) — a small upward revision, the bloc's economy stays above the line

Germany

• Services PMI: 50.9 (est. 51.2; prev. 51.2) — slightly below expectations, but still in expansion territory

• Composite PMI: 51.9 — in line with forecasts, no surprise

France

• Services PMI: 48.8 (est. 48.3; prev. 48.3) — marginally above expectations, but still deep in services contraction

• Composite PMI: 48.8 — in line with forecast, economy contracting for the second consecutive month

Italy

• Services PMI: 48.8 (est. 50.9; prev. 52.3) — major negative surprise, sharp drop below the 50-point threshold from a position of solid expansion

• Composite PMI: 49.2 (est. 51.3; prev. 52.1) — equally disappointing, strong deceleration in activity

Spain

• Services PMI: 53.3 (est. 50.6; prev. 51.9) — clear positive surprise, services sector accelerating

• Composite PMI: 52.4 (est. 50.5; prev. 51.5) — Spain comfortably the strongest eurozone economy in March

March PMI data paints a picture of a deeply divided Europe: Spain is clearly accelerating, Germany is barely holding in expansion, while France and Italy — two of the bloc's largest economies — have slipped into contraction, with Italy delivering a particularly jarring deterioration relative to last month. For the ECB, these figures are especially uncomfortable against the backdrop of inflation jumping to 2.5% — the central bank must now balance fighting rising energy costs against the risk of dragging a significant portion of the eurozone into recession. The data confirms that the energy shock stemming from the Middle East conflict is hitting individual countries asymmetrically, further complicating the task of running a single monetary policy for the entire currency union. EUR ticks higher after the data.