BREAKING: US claims higher than expected! US100 rise

1:32 PM June 8, 2023

Unemployment claims in the US surprised with an increase. In the first reaction, US100 is rising after the reading.

  • Unemployment claims: 261k Expected: 235k Previously: 232k.
  • Continuing claims: 1757k Expected: 1802k Previously: 1795k.

The very large surprise in the increase in applications for benefits may mean that the unemployed in the economy are increasing rapidly, but the drop in continuing applications reflects still strong employment in the economy. After the reading, the market reassured itself that Fed rates are unlikely to be raised in June. 

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The market is pricing a Fed pause in June with a 72.5% probability after the claims reading. The odds of a 25 bp hike fell about 6%, to 27.5%, compared to yesterday's forecasts. Source: CME FedWatch

Source: xStation5


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