BREAKING: USDCAD rebounds after lower than expected CPI 🇨🇦 📈

12:30 GMT, Canada - inflation data for February:

Canadian CPI YoY Actual 1.8% (Forecast 1.9%, Previous 2.3%)
Canadian CPI MoM Actual 0.5% (Forecast 0.7%, Previous 0.0%)
Canadian CPI Trim Actual 2.3% (Forecast 2.3%, Previous 2.4%)
Canadian CPI Median Actual 2.3% (Forecast 2.4%, Previous 2.5%)

The inflation rate in Canada keeps lagging the 2-percent target. Source: XTB Reseach

Canada’s annual inflation slowed to 1.8% in February from 2.3% in January. This deceleration was primarily driven by a base-year effect following the end of the 2025 GST/HST tax holiday. As last year’s temporary price spike exited the 12-month calculation, it lowered headline figures for restaurant meals, alcohol, and toys.

Additional downward pressure came from cooling grocery prices and a 14.2% yearly drop in gasoline. However, monthly fuel costs rose 3.6% amid Middle East conflict concerns and supply disruptions. Excluding indirect taxes, inflation rose 1.9%, marking a consistent easing trend since December 2025.

USDCAD (M30)

Following data release, the USDCAD pair halted declines and rebouded significantly on US-Canada monetary policy divergance, currently testing the 23.6 Fibo level of the last descedning wave. Nevertheless, long term prospects may remain slightly on the bearish note, given the sustaiend growth of OIL prices above 100 USD.

Source: xStation5

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Economic calendar: Canadian CPI and US industrial production (16.03.2026)

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