Concerns about the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which is a key point for oil trade/transport, seem unlikely to materialize at the moment, because even if the part of the strait that is part of Iranian territorial waters were closed, trade could flow through part of Omani and UAE waters, which would most likely be secured by the US fleet. What's more, Iran itself has not made a final decision on the blockade, because despite the Iranian parliament's acceptance, the final decision rests with the Ayatollah of Iran.
This issue calms the markets, especially oil, which has already completely reversed all the gains from the beginning of the day, when the markets were just reacting to the US activation in Iran and the announcements about the strait itself. However, the situation remains dynamic and at the moment it seems premature to predict any permanent changes on the Israel-Iran-US line. Any new headlines in this matter could cause further spikes in volatility in oil and other financial instruments.
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The OIL.WTI contract has clearly pulled back from the surge at the beginning of Monday and is currently falling below $74 per barrel. The technical uptrend is maintained as long as the instrument remains above the 200-day EMA. On the other hand, the RSI indicator above 70 points indicates that the underlying instrument is overbought. Source: xStation
