Chart of the day - US500 (12.03.2025)

Wall Street indices are posting slight gains ahead of the release of U.S. CPI data for February, scheduled for 13:30 today. Investors seem to be hoping that the reading will provide relief to the market, coming in slightly lower or in line with expectations. Looking at the latest positioning data for options dealers on the S&P 500, we can see that selling pressure in this group has increased since yesterday. Meanwhile, gamma (GEX), while still negative, has risen, which could indicate that the downward pressure on Wall Street is beginning to stabilize. An optimistic CPI report could serve as a trigger for a rebound after the recent series of declines in the U.S. market.

12:30 PM GMT, U.S., CPI inflation for February: exp. 2.9% YoY vs. 3% previously (0.3% MoM vs. 0.5% previously)

• Core CPI: 3.2% YoY vs. 3.3% previously (0.3% MoM vs. 0.4% previously)

Nevertheless, market sentiment in the U.S. appears to remain subdued at least until the CPI release, as investors will have to assess the risk of a potential disappointment. Notably, the latest CPI and PPI readings for January showed an increase in inflation, which was not confirmed by the PCE data. However, recent data suggest that inflation expectations in the U.S. have risen, which could indicate that February’s CPI may exceed forecasts. This scenario seems to be the most "risky" from the perspective of current stock market sentiment and expectations regarding Federal Reserve policy. Investors still anticipate a rate cut in May, especially after the latest disappointing consumption data and mixed ISM readings from the manufacturing and services sectors.

US500 (D1 timeframe)

The S&P 500 futures contract (US500) is seeing a slight rebound from recent lows and has managed to recover relative to the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the upward wave from 2022. The first significant resistance level is around 5800 points, where the 200-session EMA200 (red line) is located.

Source: xStation5