Chart of the day - USDIDX (22.06.2022)

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Fed Chair's testimony in the US Senate is a top macro event of the day (2:30 pm BST). Jerome Powell will try to assure US lawmakers that Fed's policy tightening will not wreak havoc on the economy and that the central bank is able to deliver a soft landing. Questions from lawmakers are likely to touch on topics like the possibility of recession, tightening impact on the labor market or whether tightening was effective in bringing down inflation. While explicit comments on the level of rates are unlikely, Powell is likely to reiterate that the tightening cycle is not over yet. Text of speech is usually released around an hour and a half ahead of the hearing and volatility tends to increase during Q&A sessions.

Unsurprisingly, the event is expected to move US dollars. Taking a look at the US dollar index (USDIDX) at D1 interval, we can see that it has been trading in an upward move for some time already. A key support zone, marked with last week's lows as well as 2016 and 2018 highs, is a key to watch in the near term. If bulls manage to defend it, upward move resuming would be the base case scenario. On the other hand, should bears manage to push the price below the 103.80 area, the next target for sellers could be the 101.75 area, where the lower limit of market geometry can be found.

Source: xStation5

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