Chart of the Day: Who suffers from the oil price drop? (28.07.2026)

The decline in oil and gas prices, resulting from the cessation of attacks between the USA and Iran, has brought the Norwegian krone almost to the bottom of the currency rankings for this week (lower is only the Bolivian bolivar, whose quotes we do not regularly analyse).

Halt of attacks

Bombardments have ceased, partly due to depleting targets and ammunition stocks. On Sunday, the US Ambassador to the UN, Mike Waltz, confirmed this information. On the same day, Donald Trump said that talks with Iran are ongoing. In the event of failure, the USA is to "return to what it was doing."

Figure 1: Oil Return 50 Days Before and 200 Days After the Event

Source: XTB Research, 28.07.2026

The situation is presented slightly differently by the Iranian MFA spokesperson, Esmail Baghaei, who claims that there is currently no direct dialogue between officials from Iran and the USA. Tehran, however, has declared that it will halt retaliation "as long as the USA maintains the pause." He also confirmed that it is conducting talks with Oman, a key mediator in the entire conflict. Their goal is to establish "mechanisms regarding maritime traffic" in the Strait of Hormuz.

No fundamental changes

The Strait of Hormuz remains de facto closed (according to Kpler data, ship traffic is limited to a maximum of a dozen or so daily, compared to approx. 80-140 in standard conditions), and the parties remain far from an agreement on uranium enrichment.

Moreover, last week, Yemeni Houthis joined the fight, carrying out attacks on Saudi Aramco's oil infrastructure and threatening attacks on tankers in Bab al-Mandab, which restricts traffic in the key strait in the south of the Arabian Peninsula.

All options on the table?

The resumption of attacks could result in a rapid return of Brent crude oil prices to around 100 dollars per barrel. Any signs of progress in negotiation talks, in turn, could lead to a gradual price drop, although it seems that the market is no longer paying as much attention to these communications, approaching Donald Trump's chaotic communication with some distance.

Fundamental is the number of ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz. If we observe an improvement in this regard, oil prices may continue to move south. At the moment, however, there are no clear reasons for optimism in this area.

Macroeconomic data

At 9:30 PM today, we are awaiting the publication of the API report on the change in oil inventories. From Norway, we will receive two significant readings this week in the form of June retail sales (Wednesday) and July unemployment rate (Friday). We do not suspect that they will significantly translate into volatility in the EURNOK pair.

This, in the context of local factors, may only be enlivened by the publication of July inflation data, which is scheduled for August 10. A higher-than-expected reading may cause the Norges Bank meeting taking place 3 days later (August 13) to be exceptionally closely watched by investors. The market-implied probability of an August hike is already reaching over 40%.

Technical analysis

Figure 2: EURNOK (05.02.2026 - 28.07.2026)

Source: xStation, 28.07.2026

After a dynamic June increase, it is time for July declines. The rate slowed down around 10.85, slightly above the 78.6% level on the Fibonacci grid.

It is currently at the 11.03 level, testing key resistance points in the form of the 50-day moving average and the 50 Fibo retracement. Not much higher (approx. 11.05) runs the next barrier in the form of the 100-day average. An effective breakout to the upside from the range may open the way to a continuation of increases and a return towards the June peaks.

This setup is supported by the lower indicators. RSI returned to a neutral level (49.4), leaving room for possible increases, while MACD clearly indicates that the supply pressure present in recent weeks has slowed down significantly, which can be seen in the systematically shrinking histogram tending towards the zero line.