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12:18 PM · 26 August 2025

Coffee loses almost 3% 📉 StoneX estimates higher production in 2026/27 season

Arabica futures on ICE (COFFEE) lose today amid profit-taking and long liquidation, despite StoneX cutting Brazil production forecast

2025/26 total crop now seen at 62.3m bags (-3.4% vs. prior estimate, -5.4% y/y).
- Arabica output slashed to 36.5m bags (-18.4% y/y) on disappointing yields.
- Robusta at record 25.8m bags (+21.9% y/y), aided by irrigation and favorable weather.
- Last year’s drought hammered Arabica yield, but Robusta benefited from intensive irrigation & acreage expansion.
- However, StoneX sees 2026/27 Arabica crop outlook brighter – flowering starts in ~1 month; rains in Nov–Mar rejuvenated trees, suggesting recovery next cycle.
- - Frost impact in Minas Gerais is limited according to the report (~400k bags).
  - Robusta regions remain strong with high production potential next year.

COFFEE (H1 interval)

Coffee loses almost 3% today, testing the important support from EMA50 (orange line).

Source: xStation5

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