Cryptocurrencies have returned to a consolidating trend after a sharp retracement on Thursday. Bitcoin is trading at $19,200 at the beginning of the week, Ethereum remains above $1,300:
- Weakness in the U.S. stock market prompted a flurry of commentary over the weekend regarding the 2000 and 2008 crises. The NASDAQ closed below its 200-session weekly average for the first time in 14 years, which triggered comparisons, as these moments turned out to be characteristic of previous deep besses that carried with them 50 or even 80% index sell-offs. Cryptocurrencies continue to remain relatively resilient, the previous week full of macro publications did not cause Bitcoin's price to fall below $18,000, the king of cryptocurrencies defended key levels and is trading above $19,000 again;
- Analysts still disagree on how regulations will affect the cryptocurrency sector. According to Wells Fargo, they could weaken the margins and volumes of cryptocurrency exchanges in the U.S. if cryptocurrencies were considered 'securities' and subject to restrictive regulations. This could negatively affect the profits of entities like the Coinbase exchange. For this reason, Wells downgraded Coinbase (COIN.US) shares. However, most who analyze the crypto market see regulation as necessary and helpful to the evolution of the market itself;
- Rostin Behnam, chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, among others, believes that the creation of a transparent regulatory framework for the market should positively impact the price of Bitcoin. Benham also sees the potential for greater influence from institutions if a transparent regulatory structure is created;
- An analysis by former SpaceX intern Sahil Gupta has prompted a flurry of speculation around the identity of Bitcoin's creator, the mysterious 'Satoshi Nakamoto'. The creator of BTC would be linked to Musk by, among other things, the repetition of the same terms (monolithic, order of magnitude), linguistic habits (use of British-English along with American-English), the idea of a global currency limiting the influence of banks on the flow of money, technical abilities (Musk co-created PayPal, whose mission was similar), the original peer-to-peer payment systems created by Musk (m. including Zip2 and x.com whose code similarly to BTC was described by Musk as 'monolithic') and finally.... tracked only once, in 2009, Satoshi's IP login address, at Van Nuys Airport, in Los Angeles.... This airport is often frequented by Elon Musk and is next door to the SpaceX headquarters. In the past, Musk has denied creating Bitcoin, commenting on reports on Twitter.
The 'Fear and Greed Index' continues to indicate levels of extreme fear of the Bitcoin market. Source: alternative.me
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Observing BTC quotes since 2013, statistically we see that October and November were the most often positive months for the Bitcoin price, historically the worst was September. It seems that the U.S. midterms elections may prove to be the turning point, after which statistically the U.S. stock market mostly rose and did better than in the period before them. Source: Coinglass
The futures market is able to influence the short-term price movement of Bitcoin, the chart shows the funding rates that determine whether contract market traders are in a bearish or bullish mood. Negative funding rates indicate bearish sentiment, while positive ones indicate bullish sentiment. Currently, funding rates are still negative after falling below $22,000. The contract market is betting that bitcoin will break through to new lows. However, the market is not very liquid, which is typical of periods of consolidation, and weakens the 'message power' of the futures. The occurrence of extremely negative values may in turn increase the likelihood of a 'short squeeze', i.e. a speculative drive for the bears to capitulate by increasing their buy positions, for this, however, there would have to be a favorable investment background. Source: Coinglass
Bitcoin, H4 interval. The price is still moving below the 200-session average on the hourly interval, however, it turned out to be positive that the SMA50 average broke through the top again, which, with the successful defense of the $18,000 level from Thursday, could favor a rise above the SMA200, the last time we saw it in July this year. Source: xStation5
