Cryptocurrencies attempt a rebound on Monday after sharp declines, during which BTC fell about 20% from its all-time high, while Ethereum pulled back to around $3,000 from $4,900 seen in the summer. Today, both of the largest cryptocurrencies are gaining along with U.S. stock indices, where improving sentiment may signal higher inflows into ETF funds. Hopes for a U.S. government reopening have increased, as Republicans continue to negotiate details with Democrats. Importantly, reopening the government would also boost market liquidity, which—beyond improved sentiment about the economy—could serve as a more structural driver for the trend.
CryptoQuant noted that spot order size data suggests the return of institutional investors to the Ethereum market, which, if it holds the $3,000–$3,400 support zone, may be entering a low-volatility accumulation phase.
Meanwhile, older Bitcoin wallets have recently been transferring their crypto reserves to Binance at the largest scale since July, indicating strong selling pressure among that group of investors. Bitcoin ETF inflows have fallen by about $2.3 billion from their peak, marking the biggest outflow since May 2025.
Since October, long-term investors (LTHs) have resumed selling, but this time demand has weakened, preventing the market from absorbing their supply at higher prices. For instance, during January–March and November–December 2024, increased selling from LTHs was offset by rising demand. The market is now clearly in a correction phase, which is also evident in on-chain flows. Analysis of Glassnode’s on-chain Cost Basis Distribution indicator shows the key price levels where Bitcoin positions are being built or closed on a large scale. Two levels currently stand out:
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$110,000 – a zone showing high supply concentration, where many market participants have been eager to sell BTC
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$102,000 – where accumulation is starting to appear, though still relatively weak
It will be crucial to watch whether selling around $110,000 remains strong and if demand near $102,000–$105,000 continues to develop.
Source: Glassnode
CryptoQuant’s on-chain indicators still point to solid accumulation among broad investor groups, despite intense BTC selling from long-term addresses and falling prices.
Source: CryptoQuant
Bitcoin and Ethereum Charts (D1)
Looking at the charts of the two largest cryptocurrencies, we can see that both are currently attempting to reclaim the 200-day EMA (red line), with Ethereum showing a stronger rebound. The token is trading roughly around the key moving average near $3,600. The RSI indicator for both cryptocurrencies is gradually rising toward 50, suggesting a significant easing of selling pressure.
Source: xStation5
Source: xStation5
ETFs Are Selling (for Now)
Recent days have seen outflows from crypto ETFs, but the long-term trend appears intact—especially if the U.S. government reopens and stocks resume their upward trend. ETFs remain a key measure of buying momentum in the crypto market, closely monitored by hedge funds and dealers. Renewed demand from this group could serve as a key signal of a potential trend reversal.
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., XTB Research
Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P., XTB Research
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