Daily Summary: Gold, bitcoin and indices at new highs after NFP 🔔

Wall Street ends the week with minor declines. At the time of publication, the US500 is losing 0.40% to 45140 points, while the US100 is trading 1.20% lower to 18020 points.

The NFP report was the highlight of the week. The change in US employment came in at 275k, clearly above the expected 200k. On the other hand, there was a massive negative revision for January. 

The report also showed an increase in the unemployment rate to 3.9%, a lower wage rate of 4.3%. The household report shows a drop in employment at 184k, which means that more and more Americans are taking on more than 1 full-time job

After the report, the probability for a US rate cut is increasing. A full cut in June is priced in, while for May the probability rises from 20 to 30%

EURUSD rebounds almost to the 1.098 level. USDJPY continues its strong declines and tests the 146.5 area, losing more than 400 pips in the last 4 sessions. EURUSD, however, returns below the 1.095 level

Expectations for an interest rate hike in Japan are growing. The BoJ is expected to be satisfied with the pace of wage growth. 

Gold rises today from USD 2158 per ounce to USD 2195 per ounce. Gold gains on weak dollar and uncertainty over Bank of Japan action

After reaching new historic highs, the indices are retreating. The US100 loses 1% and the US500 is down 0.4%. Interestingly, seasonality indicates a pullback to around the 19/20 March Fed decision

German industrial production rises 1% m/m for January against expectations of 0.6% m/m. On an annual basis, however, it falls by 5.5% y/y, stronger than the previous reading. 

Eurozone GDP grows 0.1% y/y as expected

Canadian employment change comes in stronger than expected at 40.7k, while full-time employment came in at 70.6k. Despite the good data, USDCAD rebounds today

CAD weakness is partly due to oil weakness. WTI falls from near USD 80 to USD 78 per barrel

The cryptocurrency market is seeing increased volatility today. Bitcoin briefly broke through USD 70000 setting a new intra-day record high. However, a short while later there was a cascading sell-off resulting from an over-leveraged market and a large number of short positions set around USD 70000.

Bitcoin even returned below USD 67,000, with the final price stabilizing around USD 68,000. 

Inflows into ETFs are still high, and trading volumes are at record levels. In recent days, we may also see more capital inflows into smaller projects, which are becoming more attractive to investors as the rise in BTC continues.