Daily summary: gold with another record, France without another PM (08.09.2025)

Sentiment on Wall Street is mixed today. Tech stocks are leading gains (US100: +0.4%), with the S&P 500 (US500: +0.1%) also higher. Losses in the DJIA (US30: -0.1%) reflect investor caution ahead of Thursday’s inflation data.

European index futures mostly trade in the green. Poland’s W20 (+2.17%) led gains, followed by SPA35 (+1%) and AUT20 (+0.8%). FRA40 (+0.55%) holds its advance despite the collapse of Prime Minister Bayrou’s government, while DE40 adds 0.5%.

French PM François Bayrou failed to win a confidence vote in the National Assembly. As pledged, he will submit his resignation tomorrow to President Emmanuel Macron, who must then either appoint a new PM or dissolve parliament for fresh elections.

Gold hit fresh record highs, surpassing $3,600/oz at the start of the week. It’s up about 1% today, touching $3,644/oz, and more than 5% since the start of the month.

Oil recovered losses from late last week, supported by reports OPEC+ agreed to resume restoring production tied to earlier COVID-era cuts. The group will add 137,000 bpd monthly, with decisions reviewed each month. Saudi Aramco trimmed export prices for Asia and Europe, though they remain above Dubai benchmarks.

The EU is preparing a new sanctions package against Russia, expected Friday, targeting banks and other institutions. Natural gas prices jumped 5% on lower output and rising demand expectations, with tropical storm concerns also providing support. Gains later eased to around 1.5%.

On FX, the U.S. dollar is weakening as markets price in a Fed rate cut next week (USDIDX: -0.1%). Antipodean currencies lead (NZDUSD: +0.7%, AUDUSD: +0.5%), while EURUSD rises 0.2% to 1.1738.

The Polish zloty remains strong against the euro and dollar despite Fitch lowering Poland’s credit rating outlook. Gains on the W20 were driven largely by a rebound in the banking sector.

German industrial production rose 1.5% y/y in July (vs. -0.3% expected, after -3.5% prior). On a monthly basis, output increased 1.3% m/m (vs. 1.0% expected, after -0.1% prior). Germany’s trade surplus narrowed to €14.7B (vs. €15.3B expected, €15.9B prior).