Daily summary: Hawkish FOMC not enough to offset dovish CPI

8:11 PM 12 June 2024
  • FOMC left interest rates unchanged in the 5.25-5.50% range, in-line with market expectations. Statement repeated that central bank needs to have greater confidence in inflation return to target before cutting rates
  • New 'dot-plot' showed median expectation of just a single rate cut for this year, down from three cuts in March projections. However, there was an almost equal split between members who saw 1 and 2 cuts in 2024
  • However, Fed Chair Powell tried to send a very balanced message during the press conference, stressing that projections are not a plan
  • Money markets see an around-70% chance of Fed cutting rates, little changed compared to pre-FOMC pricing
  • Wall Street indices dropped slightly after FOMC decision but held onto post-CPI gains and remain near all-time highs. S&P 500 trades 1% higher, Nasdaq rallied 1.8%, while small-cap Russell 2000 surges 2.2%. Dow Jones trades flat
  • Apple continue upward move launched after developers event and surges 6%, extending two-day rally to over 13%
  • USD recovered part of post-CPI declines after FOMC decision. However, EURUSD still trades 0.7% higher on the day
  • Gold and silver dropped after FOMC decision but also hold above pre-CPI levels. Gold gains 0.2%, while silver trades over 1% higher
  • US CPI inflation decelerated from 3.4% in April to 3.3% YoY in May (exp. 3.4% YoY), while core CPI inflation decelerated from 3.6% to 3.4% YoY (exp. 3.5% YoY). Release trigger a strong dovish market reaction, with USD dropping and indices gaining
  • European stock market indices traded higher today, support by dovish US data release - German DAX gained 1.5%, French CAC40 moved 1% higher, Dutch AEXx jumped 1.1% and UK FTSE added 0.8%
  • Oil erased daily gains and turned negative after bearish DOE report. Report showed a 3.73 million barrel increase in oil inventories (exp. -1.7 mb), a 2.57 million barrel increase in gasoline inventories (exp. 0.2 mb) and a 0.88 mb increase in distillate stockpiles (exp. 0.5 mb)
  • UK GDP growth decelerated from 0.7% YoY in March to 0.7% YoY in April (exp. 0.6% YoY). On a monthly basis, UK economy stagnated (0.0% MoM vs 0.0% MoM expected)
  • UK industrial production declined 0.4% YoY in April (exp. +0.3 YoY), while manufacturing production was 0.4% YoY higher (exp. 1.6% YoY)
  • Final German CPI reading for May came in-line with flash release and showed headline CPI accelerating from 2.4% in April to 2.8% YoY in May
  • Chinese CPI inflation remained unchanged at 0.3% YoY in May (exp. 0.4% YoY), while PPI inflation accelerated from -2.5% to -1.4% YoY (exp. -1.5% YoY)
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