Daily Summary: Is the End of the War Drawing Near? (28.05.2026)

We have passed another trading day where market volatility was heavily dominated by headlines coming out of the Middle East.

Global Stock Markets

W godzinach porannych w globalnych serwisach przewodziły doniesienia odnośnie kolejnego ostrzału sił amerykańskich oraz odwetu ze strony Iranu, co doprowadziło do wzrostów cen surowców energetycznych oraz pogorszenia sentymentu względem ryzyka. Z tego też względu na czerwono dzień zamknęły kluczowe europejskie indeksy. 

• The French CAC40 fell by 0.2%.
• The German DAX dropped by 0.3%.
• The pan-European STOXX 600 declined by 0.5%.
• The British FTSE 100 shed 0.8%.

These declines were primarily supported by morning reports regarding the continuation of US shelling directed at Iran.

The US stock market began the day with minor losses but is finishing it with a substantial rally. The main catalyst behind the upward moves on Wall Street is the positive news regarding negotiations between the US and Iran, which broke around 4:00 PM. According to a report by Axios, a tentative agreement has been reached on a 60-day memorandum—it currently awaits approval from President Trump and Ayatollah Khamenei.

• The NASDAQ Composite is recording a gain of 0.8%
• The S&P 500 is rising by 0.6%

Geopolitics

The US continued its strikes against Iran, shooting down four drones and hitting an Iranian ground control station in Bandar Abbas. United States Central Command (CENTCOM) once again framed the shelling as a "defensive action"—stating the drones posed a threat to US forces and commercial shipping near the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran chose to retaliate this time by launching a ballistic missile at a US airbase in Kuwait. Kuwait intercepted the missile; no casualties or damage were reported. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned of a "more decisive response" in the event of further US aggression.

Crucially, however, after 4:00 PM Axios reported that the US and Iran had reached an agreement on a 60-day memorandum, which still requires Donald Trump's signature. The deal would reportedly involve an extension of the ceasefire, during which the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. Iran would be allowed to freely sell crude oil, and the parties would conduct negotiations aimed at limiting the Iranian nuclear program.

Under the terms, Iran would commit to not pursuing nuclear weapons and enter negotiations to suspend enrichment and remove its stockpiles of highly enriched uranium. Both Trump and mediators have suggested that an announcement could come this Sunday. However, the agreement has not yet been finalized and could still fall through.

Macroeconomic Data

Investors anxiously awaited the release of a batch of key US data scheduled for 2:30 PM. However, these figures did not trigger any major surprises and were quickly overshadowed by the subsequent news from the Middle East. Nonetheless, based on today’s readings, we can draw at least three conclusions:

• The American consumer is weakening: Household income is growing at a very slow pace, meaning that any increase in spending is occurring primarily at the expense of savings, which are declining at an alarming rate.
• Inflation may (but does not have to) prove problematic: The savings rate is falling dynamically (reaching 2.6% in April), which could lead to increased price elasticity of demand. This would limit the room for manufacturers to hike prices in the face of rising production costs.
• The market is hunting for any arguments against FOMC rate hikes: Today's data does not come as a major surprise. In essence, it confirms what we have been observing in the US economy for several weeks, and in some cases, even months. However, this did not stop markets from scaling back their expectations for Fed interest rate hikes. The probability of an upward move before the end of the year currently stands at approximately 55%.

Figure 1: US CPI & PCE Inflation (2000 - 2026)

Source: XTB Research, 28.05.2026

News from companies

Gains in the United States are being led by the technology sector. Notable gainers include Oracle (+6.7%), Palantir (+7.3%), and AMD (+4.8%).

Figure 2: Heatmap of the Day's Winners and Losers on the US Stock Market (28.05.2026)

Source: xStation, 28.05.2026

Ford is also continuing its winning streak, with its shares rallying by 32.6% over the past month. The catalyst is a fundamental shift in the investment narrative: Ford Energy, after signing a five-year framework contract with EDF Power Solutions, expects further contracts with the utility sector and hyperscalers. Morgan Stanley rated the deal as the first major commercial victory for the division.

Following the publication of Q1 results, substantial gains are also being recorded by:

• Dollar Tree (DLTR.US): The company is posting the strongest rally in the entire S&P 500 index today. Shares are surging by 19% on the back of fantastic Q1 results. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.74, beating the consensus by over $0.20. Revenue increased by 7.2% YoY, and the gross margin expanded by 1.2 percentage points.
• Best Buy (BBY.US): Near the top of today's leaderboard is the leading American consumer electronics retailer. An 18% jump can also be attributed to its Q1 fiscal results. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.28 versus the expected $1.22, while revenue reached $8.94 billion against a consensus of $8.83 billion. Comparable store sales grew by 2% YoY, driven predominantly by gaming consoles, computers, and mobile phones.

Commodities

• Gold & Silver: A decline in US bond yields is supporting an increase in the price of precious metals, with gold up 1.2% and silver gaining 1.7%.
• Brent Crude Oil: Down 0.6%. The decline is driven by the Axios reports regarding the approaching agreement between the US and Iran.
• NATGAS: Up 5.8%. The net build in natural gas inventories for the week ending May 22 came in lower than expected at 92 billion cubic feet (Bcf). Additionally, weather forecasts for the coming weeks were recently revised upward.

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Michał Jóźwiak, Financial Markets Analyst at XTB