- Thursday's trading session on the stock exchanges in Europe, the US, and Asia brought us another wave of sell-offs on the major stock markets.
- The main factors driving valuations down are: 1) escalation of the conflict in the Middle East 2) liquidity problems in the US financial sector
- On the cash market, Nasdaq is currently down 1.45% and Dow Jones 1.3%. In Europe, DAX lost 0.29%, French CAC40 fell by 0.71%, and Polish WIG20 dropped by 0.65%.
- Crude oil is gaining value today, with Brent returning above $101 per barrel.
- Interestingly, however, there is a lot of conflicting information surrounding this raw material today.
- Iran's leadership has announced that it intends to respond with fire to any attacks and is paving the way for new fronts/fighting if Israel and the US continue to attack the country's energy infrastructure. Trump mentioned today that regime change is the most important goal, and rising oil prices are secondary. At the same time, we learned of the White House's plans to temporarily suspend the implementation of the so-called Jones Act, a 1920 law requiring that goods be transported between US ports on ships built in the US, owned by American companies, and operated by American crews.
- The response of an Iranian deputy, stating that there were no plans to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz, also served to soften the echo of the conflict.
- Returning to the stock markets. One of the weakest segments at the start of the US session was banks and finance in general – the pressure stems from two sources: concerns about the rising cost of money amid high oil prices and growing problems in the private credit segment. Morgan Stanley limited the possibility of redeeming units in its North Haven Private Income Fund after investors requested the redemption of approximately 11% of shares, while the fund's charter allows for only 5% to be paid out per quarter.
- This mistrust is compounded by criticism from companies such as Glendon Capital, which accuse Blue Owl, among others, of underestimating real losses in their portfolios, which the market interprets as a sign that the problems may be deeper than official valuations show.
- On the Forex market, the US dollar is once again performing best, followed by the strengthening Canadian dollar. At the same time, we are seeing the biggest declines in Antipodean currencies.
- The strength of the dollar is not indifferent to precious metals today. GOLD prices are falling by 0.8% to $5,100 today.
- Bitcoin, on the other hand, is mirroring Wall Street sentiment, with the cryptocurrency losing nearly 0.7%, although it is still defending the psychological barrier of $70,000.
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