Daily summary: The US100 ends the session with a strong rally🚀

The main factor influencing volatility

The dominant theme of the day was the balance of power surrounding the U.S.–Iran conflict and its impact on global markets. Following the weekend’s military attacks in the Strait of Hormuz, both sides announced a suspension of hostilities on Sunday evening, which spurred gains on Wall Street. Volatility was evident, however: investors swung between euphoria and anxiety in the absence of an official confirmation of the ceasefire by Tehran, which denied that technical talks were scheduled. The market literally fluctuated wildly before the bulls took control toward the end of the session.

Geopolitics

The U.S. and Iran have agreed to suspend military operations and allow the free passage of commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner traveled to Qatar to meet with the country’s prime minister on Tuesday and resume peace talks. Meanwhile, Qatar has suspended its own naval operations after one of its citizens was killed by shrapnel during military operations. The U.S. Supreme Court also issued a landmark ruling: it affirmed the Fed’s independence, blocking President Trump’s dismissal of Governor Lisa Cook on procedural grounds, but at the same time ruled that Trump had the right to fire FTC Commissioner Rebecca Slaughter, overturning a 1935 precedent.

Macro data

The week is shortened due to Independence Day (July 4), but the macro calendar remains busy. The June jobs report will be released on Thursday: Goldman Sachs forecasts a payroll increase of 130,000 (consensus: 115,000), while DB expects only 75,000, citing seasonal risks. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will speak on Wednesday at the ECB forum in Sintra, which markets will be watching closely in light of the interest rate path. In Poland, the “Lower Fuel Prices” (CPN) program expires on July 1, and the 23% VAT rate on fuels will return, which will translate into an increase in the price of 95 octane gasoline to approximately 6.50–6.80 PLN per liter and push up CPI inflation by an estimated 0.3–0.4 percentage points.

Indices

Wall Street closed the session with significant gains: the Dow Jones rose by more than 302 points (0.58%), reaching 52,175 points, the S&P 500 rose 0.51% to 7,392 points, and the Nasdaq climbed 0.79% to 25,497 points, thereby holding its support level near the 50-day EMA.  Asia saw calmer trading: Japan’s Nikkei rose 0.15%, and China’s CHN.cash gained 0.93%. European indices ended the session mixed: the Stoxx 600 was virtually unchanged, while the DAX (DE40) and FTSE (UK100) each lost about 0.2%, although the technology sector rebounded by over 1% following last week’s sell-off. Poland’s W20 index fell 0.34%, clearly diverging from the positive sentiment across the Atlantic.

Stocks

The star of the day was Alphabet, which gained more than 4% on its first day of trading as a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Comcast rose 6–7% following the announcement of a spin-off of its media portfolio (NBCUniversal and Sky) into two separate publicly traded companies. Semiconductor manufacturers experienced a rollercoaster ride: the SMH ETF ultimately gained 2.5% after an earlier drop of 3.1%, Nvidia rebounded to +0.6%, and Micron remained down about 2%. TopBuild, on the other hand, plummeted 12%—its worst day since March 2020—amid its $17 billion acquisition by QXO.

Currencies

The dollar remained under slight pressure: the USDIDX index fell 0.23%, approaching the 100.88 level. The euro and the pound gained 0.39% (EURUSD at 1.1424) and 0.43% (GBPUSD at 1.3253), respectively, against the dollar. The EURPLN pair rose slightly by 0.12% to 4.29, while the USDPLN weakened by 0.24% to 3.75, which is favorable for raw material imports and fuel costs in Poland. The Japanese yen (USDJPY) remained stable at 161.94.

Commodities

Crude oil prices rose amid tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz: WTI rose 1.7% to $70.38, and Brent rose 1.24% to $72.88 per barrel. Gold and silver came under significant pressure: gold fell 1.20% to $4,022, and silver dropped 1.36% to $58.08—a classic move amid improved risk appetite. Natural gas (NATGAS) recorded the largest decline among all instruments: down 3.58% to $3.18, which may reflect expectations of a faster restoration of LNG supplies.

Cryptocurrencies

Bitcoin gained 1.74%, trading in the range of $60,280–$60,478. The rise in cryptocurrency prices is part of the overall risk-on sentiment in the markets, driven by the U.S.–Iran ceasefire. There was also significant industry news in the background: xAI’s (Elon Musk) Grok 4.5 has begun private testing at Tesla and SpaceX, based on the new V9 architecture with approximately 1.5 trillion parameters, which could impact the valuations of companies in Musk’s ecosystem in the long term. Tesla is posting strong gains, partly interpreted as a reaction to the group’s ambitions to integrate AI.