- Despite serious military escalation between Iran and Israel over the weekend, global stock markets are rising today, as Wall Street is pricing in low risk of further conflict escalation and supply disruption in the oil market. Oil and gold prices are falling, while risk assets like Bitcoin and equities are gaining.
- Markets are assessing only minimal risk of the Strait of Hormuz being closed, considering Iran’s limited military capacity, its export interests, successful Israeli operations, and potential U.S. support. The American aircraft carrier USS Nimitz is heading toward the Middle East.
- U.S. indices are rebounding significantly today. The Nasdaq 100 leads with gains of nearly 1.5%. Strong advances are also seen in the Russell 2000, which is up 1.2%. The S&P 500 is rising by around 1%, while the Dow Jones adds 0.9%.
- Oil prices are retreating to $73 per barrel, down from opening levels near $77. At one point, Brent crude dropped to $70, but reports from Al Jazeera and statements from Tehran sparked a partial recovery.
- According to media sources, Iran asked Arab nations to help convince the U.S. to pressure Israel into signing a ceasefire. If confirmed, Tehran may be willing to make concessions on the nuclear deal.
- On the other hand, Al Jazeera partially denied the more "optimistic" Wall Street Journal reports, and Iran declared it would soon carry out its largest-ever missile strike on Israel.
- Circle Internet Group is soaring over 15% today after weekend comments by its CEO emphasizing the potential and future of the stablecoin market. The company has now surged more than fivefold since its debut, reaching a new all-time high.
- Sage Therapeutics is also posting sharp gains, with its shares up more than 35% after announcing its acquisition by Supernus Pharmaceuticals. The implied offer price per share is about $12, marking an 80% premium over the stock’s value before the deal was announced.
- AMD is leading gains in the S&P 500 today, supported by bullish analyst commentary from Piper Sandler and the launch of its new MI400 GPU chip, developed in cooperation with OpenAI.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yields are rebounding, climbing back above 4.4%. In Germany, bond markets are more stable, with 10-year yields holding steady around 2.5%.
- In forex markets, the Australian dollar is gaining around 0.8%, and the New Zealand dollar is up nearly 1%. The euro and Canadian dollar are both rising about 0.2%. The U.S. dollar and Japanese yen are underperforming among the G10 currencies, each down around 0.2%.
- The shift toward riskier assets is pushing cryptocurrency prices higher. Bitcoin is climbing back above $107,000, up nearly 3% today, while Ethereum gains more than 5%.
- Among precious metals, gold is showing the weakest sentiment, falling about 1.2%. Silver remains stable at around $36.2, while platinum is rebounding 2.2%, partially recovering from Friday’s losses.
- NY Fed Manufacturing index came in -16 vs -6 exp. and - 9.2 previously. New orders were down significantly, however sentiments and employment rise and inflation expectations eased
- Investors hope that in the event of a significant drop in Iranian oil production, Gulf states could compensate by increasing their output. The determination of the U.S. administration to keep energy prices low is also likely to grow stronger.
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