Economic calendar: ADP report as the key publication of the day 📄

Today, we will receive another labor market report — the ADP report. This is the second most important U.S. labor market report after the NFP, which is due this Friday. In addition, the publication of the FOMC minutes from the last Fed meeting will be equally important.

The first macroeconomic reports of this year have not brought good news for stock market investors. Yesterday’s ISM data publication raised serious concerns about the return of inflationary pressures in the U.S. Additionally, Donald Trump continues to emphasize his campaign promises in his interviews, fuelling fears of a strong pivot in U.S. policy towards protectionism.

Analysts’ expectations for today’s ADP report suggest a reading roughly in line with last month’s numbers. U.S. employment change in December is expected to increase by 140,000 compared to 146,000 in November.

It is also important to note that tomorrow the U.S. stock market will remain closed due to a day of mourning following the death of former President J. Carter on December 29, 2024.

Detailed schedule for the day:

07:00 AM GMT, Germany - Retail Sales Data for November:

• German Retail Sales: forecast 0.5% MoM; previous -1.5% MoM;
• German Retail Sales: forecast 1.9% YoY; previous 1.0% YoY;

07:00 AM GMT, Germany - Durable Goods for November:

• German Factory Orders: forecast -0.3% MoM; previous -1.5% MoM;

01:15 PM GMT, United States - Employment Data for December:

• ADP Nonfarm Employment Change: forecast 139K; previous 146K;

01:30 PM GMT, United States - Employment Data:

• Jobless Claims 4-Week Avg.: previous 223.25K;
• Initial Jobless Claims: forecast 214K; previous 211K;
• Continuing Jobless Claims: forecast 1,870K; previous 1,844K;

01:30 PM GMT, United States - Fed Waller Speaks

03:30 PM GMT, United States - EIA Data:

• Gasoline Inventories: forecast 0.500M; previous 7.717M;
• Crude Oil Inventories: forecast -1.800M; previous -1.178M;
• EIA Weekly Distillates Stocks: forecast 0.500M; previous 6.406M;

07:00 PM GMT, United States - FOMC Meeting Minutes