Economic calendar: GDP and inflation data to steal the show

Summary:

• European economic growth expect to decelerate in the second quarter

• Consumer confidence by CB to remain virtually unchanged in July

• 3 Dow Jones companies to report earnings today

Just take a quick look at the economic calendar and you will see that Tuesday is going to be a busy day. Throughout the morning inflation and GDP figures from EMU economies are being published with reading for the whole bloc scheduled for release at 10:00 am BST. Moving on, Canadian growth and the US consumer confidence data will take the spotlight in the afternoon. Weekly piece of data on oil inventories provided by API will conclude the day and may support the bounce on the oil market started in the second half of the month.

10:00 am BST - Eurozone, GDP and CPI inflation data. After ECB declared that the potential rate hike will be dependant on the state of the European economy investors will focus on the incoming data stream even more carefully. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg suggest that the EMU economy grew at the pace of 2.2% YoY and 0.4% QoQ in the second quarter of the year. The CPI inflation reading for July that will be released simultaneously is expected to remain at the prior level of 2% YoY while the core measure should tick higher from 0.9% YoY to 1% YoY. Last, but not least European unemployment rate for June is forecasted to decline from 8.4% to 8.3%.

1:30 pm BST - Canada, GDP for May. After a lacklustre 0.1% MoM advance seen in April the GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 0.3% MoM in May. If this estimate is to be confirmed by the actual data this will be the fourth consecutive month of economic expansion in Canada. However, on the YoY basis the GDP growth is expected to decelerate from the 2.5% to 2.3%. Nevertheless, this reading may spur some additional volatility on the CAD tied FX pairs but it is unlikely that it will boost the odds for any rate hike in the nearby future.

3:00 pm BST - US, CB Consumer Confidence for July. The latest CB consumer confidence and UoM consumer sentiment readings saw a little deterioration what may suggest that the US citizens took notice of the ongoing trade dispute. Today’s reading is expected to provide an insignificant tick higher from 126.4 pts to 126.5 pts. Apart from that, one and half an hour earlier (1:30 pm BST) data concerning personal spending and income for June will be released. The income data should show another 0.4% MoM increase while the spending should accelerate from 0.2% MoM to 0.4% MoM.

9:30 pm BST - API Weekly Crude Oil Stocks. Oil prices took a hit in July as trade conflict between two of the world’s biggest economies gathered pace. However, some bullish informations stormed the market lately allowing the commodity to bounce higher. Namely, part of the Saudi Arabian supply may be endangered after attacks on one of the most important transit routes in the region. Apart from that, employee strike on the North Sea provided another boost for the oil prices. While this topics are likely to stay for some time stocks data may additionally support recovery. Today’s API reading is expected to show a 3.1 mb drop in inventories.

Notable US companies reporting earnings today:

• Procter & Gamble (PG.US)

• Pfizer (PFE.US)

• Apple (AAPL.US)

USDCAD continues its retreat from the highs at 1.338 reached in late-June. The pair managed to touch a long term support zone yesterday but bears failed to hold this decline. We may see another test today as a Canadian-US data pack is scheduled for release in the afternoon. Source: xStation5