Economic calendar: Oil in the spotlight amid OPEC meeting and inventories data

December 6, 2018

Summary:

  • ADP will release its employment change estimates in the early afternoon

  • Non-manufacturing ISM seen pulling back for another month

  • OPEC meeting starts today!

On Thursday investors will be served a range of the US data that would normally be released on Wednesday (due to the holiday). ADP employment change print and ISM non-manufacturing reading will give an update of the US economy condition. Moreover, oil will be a point of interest today and tomorrow due to the OPEC meeting in Vienna, Austria. Additionally, DOE oil stockpiles data may spur some short-term volatilityl

1:15 pm GMT - US, ADP employment change for November. As the November’s NFP report is approaching (it will be released tomorrow) ADP is releasing its employment change estimates. Investors may use this data as a some kind of hint ahead of the official labour market report. Markets expect the reading to show a 197k increase in the US employment, what would be more or less in line with the post-crisis average. NFP report for October showed a 250k increase.

3:00 pm GMT - US, ISM non-manufacturing for November. The ISM manufacturing index released earlier this week showed that the US manufacturing sector is still robust. The reading came in at 59.3 pts putting aside expectations of a drop. When it comes to non-manufacturing gauge markets also expect a drop, from 60.3 pts to 59.2 pts. Note that this index pulled back from the highest level since late 90s last month.

4:00 pm GMT - DOE oil inventories report. American Petroleum Institute (API) suggested in its estimates released on Tuesday that the US oil inventories rose by 5.4 mb in the previous week. When it comes to today’s DOE release median estimate of economists surveyed by Bloomberg points to 1.6 mb decline in crude oil inventories. Gasoline and distillate stockpiles are seen rising 1.07 mb and 1.17 mb respectively. Keep in mind that while inventories data may be a trigger for short-term price movements, oil will be mostly impacted by the outcome of the OPEC meeting during the week’s end.

OPEC meeting (today and tomorrow)

The major oil market event is finally here. Delegates of the major oil producing countries associated in OPEC will meet today in Vienna, Austria. Discussion will concerned current situation on the oil market, including prices, output and balance. OPEC cartel will be joined by representatives of non-OPEC producers tomorrow. While Saudi Arabia and Russia would like to cut output to boost prices, both countries got their own internal conflicts that may limit them from doing so. Our preview of the meeting can be found here.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

  • 9:05 am GMT - RBA’s Debelle

  • 10:00 am GMT - BoE’s Ramsden

  • 1:35 pm GMT - BoC Governor Poloz

  • 5:15 pm GMT - Fed’s Bostic

A steep decline on the oil market was halted a notch above $59 handle when it comes to Brent (OIL). Following a minor bounce the price began to struggle in the vicinity of the resistance zone ranging $61.10-61.80. Outcome of the OPEC meeting will be crucial for the future price movements. From the technical point of view one should keep in mind that 50- and 200-session moving averages recently painted a death cross (orange circle). Source: xStation5

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