Summary:
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UK CPI scheduled for 9:30
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US retail sales at 1:30
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Weekly DOE inventories due out at 3:30
UK CPI (9:30)
The latest inflation figures for the UK are out this morning with the consensus expecting a slight pick-up in Y/Y terms to 2.5% from 2.4% previously. Tuesday’s wage figures disappointed however and another miss today could heap more pressure on the pound which fell to its lowest level in 14 months following yesterday’s data. The GBPUSD in particular has experienced a large drop in recent months and while it may be tempting to try and call a bottom the trend remains firmly lower and as of yet there is little by the way of any reversal signs.
US retail sales (1:30)
It’s a quiet week of US data with this afternoon’s consumer spending figures the standout. Retail sales M/M are expected to cool to +0.1% from +0.5% last time out but the core reading could prove more important, with calls for 0.3% from 0.4% previously. The USD has been pushing further higher this week, extending on an impressive run and its strength can be felt elsewhere with commodities such as Gold coming under pressure. US indices have held up fairly well given the recent turmoil in Turkey and a solid data point this afternoon could provide the catalyst for a push higher.
DOE inventories (3:30)
The weekly DOE inventories are usually the most important data on the calendar of Oil traders. The most recent reading is expected to show a print of -2.6M following on from a draw of -1.4M last week. The private API figures last night showed a build of +3.7M and this release is often a better gauge of market expectations than the aforementioned consensus forecast. Last week’s smaller than expected drop saw a sharp move lower in crude, with the market tumbling almost 4% on the day.
Oil has recently retested and respected prior long term support around 71.00. This could be a key area to watch today. Source: xStation
