- European futures indices indicate a slightly lower session opening
- The week of PMI data begins with Australia and Japan
This week is practically the most important week of the year considering the intensity of events. First, we have the start of the quarterly earnings season in the USA, and this week Big Tech companies like Amazon, Alphabet, Meta, and Microsoft will show their Q2 2023 data. Secondly, this week will be rich in PMI data from the world's largest economies. Today, investors have already learned PMI data from Japan and Australia and have ahead of them PMI data from the USA, EU, Germany, and the UK. Thirdly, markets this week are waiting for decisions from three of the most important central banks (FED, ECB, BoJ), which will decide on their monetary policy.
- The market does not assume the possibility of surprise from the FED. The FED, with almost a 97% probability (market swap assumptions), will raise rates by 25 basis points.
- For the ECB, the market currently assumes that eurozone rates will be raised twice more, but the probability of a second 25 bp increase is just over 50%.
- The BoJ currently does not see it appropriate to adjust the Yield Curve Control (YCC) program, which effectively nullifies the hope that the bank's ultra-dovish policy will change.
In today's PMI publications, investors should pay attention to the services PMI, which so far has held up exceptionally well compared to the industry PMI. Another important publication will be the German PMI, which last month reported an industry PMI at a record low of 40.6. The market will look for any improvement in this data, even though estimates do not indicate a significant rebound.
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8:15 AM, France - PMI:
- Industrial: Expectations 46; Previously 46
- Service: Expectations 48.4; Previously 48
8:30 AM, Germany - PMI:
- Industrial: Expectations 41; Previously 40.1
- Service: Expectations 53.1; Previously 54.1
9:00 AM, EU - PMI:
- Industrial: Expectations 43.5; Previously 43.4
- Service: Expectations 51.1; Previously 52
9:30 AM, UK - PMI:
- Industrial: Expectations 46.2; Previously 46.5
- Service: Expectations 53; Previously 53.7
2:45 PM, USA - PMI:
- Industrial: Expectations 46.4; Previously 46.3
- Service: Expectations 54; Previously 54.4
