Economic calendar: Two central banks on the agenda

Summary:

• Swedish and Turkish central banks will announce their monetary policy decisions
• Preliminary data on US durable goods orders for March

8:30 am GMT - Riksbank decision: Swedish price growth remains quite low, hence the pressure on the Riksbank to continue monetary tightening has eased recently. On top of that, monetary policy in Sweden is highly dependent on what happens with monetary policy in the Eurozone. In this field we have got recently a dovish message from the ECB suggesting rates there are unlikely to change at least through spring 2020. Market-based expectations indicate no move today assigning a tad more than 50% chance for a rate increase by October.

12:00 pm GMT - CBRT decision: After last year’s currency crisis the downward pressure on the Turkish lira has lowered. This pressure renewed a few weeks ago ahead of the regional elections in Turkey as the authorities in Ankara made it remarkably hard to sell lira-denominated assets. The prime aim was to prevent undue TRY depreciation. Inflation in Turkey still remains far above the price objective, hence the CBRT is unlikely to cuts rates markedly any time soon. The consensus for today shows the benchmark rate will stay at 24%.

1:30 pm GMT - US durable goods orders for March: Macroeconomic releases from the United States have been surprising to the downside since the beginning of April, as evidenced by the Citi economic surprise index. Today we will get an opportunity to change this trend as a preliminary report on US durable goods orders will be published. The consensus points to a 0.8% MoM in a headline figure, after a 1.6% MoM fall in February. A slight rebound to 0.2% MoM is also forecast to orders excluding transportation.

Central bankers’ speeches:

• 1:30 pm GMT - ECB’s Guindos

The EURTRY is climbing after bouncing off the crucial trend line. The first major resistance could be found nearby 6.74. Source: xStation5