Economic Calendar: US CPI Inflation in Focus Amid Escalation in the Strait of Hormuz ⚔️

Global financial markets are operating under heightened geopolitical risk today following the downing of a U.S. Apache military helicopter by Iranian forces in the Strait of Hormuz. In response, CENTCOM carried out a series of retaliatory strikes against Iranian radar and air defense installations on Qeshm Island and in the city of Sirik. Tehran responded immediately, with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) launching long-range missiles toward the U.S. Al-Azraq base in Jordan, prompting a partial interception by Jordanian air defense systems.

In the commodity market, these developments have effectively erased recent hopes for a swift diplomatic agreement. Despite the escalation, oil prices are down between 0.60% and 0.80% today, with crude trading around $88–91 per barrel.

Beyond the military tensions, investors on Wall Street and in fixed-income markets are primarily focused on today’s May U.S. CPI inflation report, which could prove decisive for the Federal Reserve’s next policy steps.

Key Developments from the Asian Session

Hawkish PPI Reading in Japan

May brought a stronger-than-expected increase in Japan’s Producer Price Index (PPI), which accelerated to 6.3% y/y versus a consensus forecast of 5.6%. The data reinforce market speculation about a potential Bank of Japan rate hike at its June meeting.

Stable Inflation in China

China’s annual CPI inflation rate came in at 1.2% y/y in May, slightly below the 1.3% consensus forecast. Meanwhile, producer price inflation (PPI) matched expectations exactly at 3.9% y/y.

Economic Calendar

10:00 – Italy: Industrial Production (m/m); Consensus: 0.0%; Previous: 0.7%

14:30 – United States: Core CPI (m/m); Consensus: 0.3%; Previous: 0.4%

14:30 – United States: Core CPI (y/y); Consensus: 2.9%; Previous: 2.8%

14:30 – United States: CPI Inflation (y/y); Consensus: 4.2%; Previous: 3.8%

15:45 – Canada: Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision; Consensus: 2.25%; Previous: 2.25%

16:30 – United States; EIA Weekly Crude Oil Inventories; Consensus: -5.10M; Previous: -7.97M

Earnings Calendar

After the close of trading on Wall Street, investors will focus on results from database and cloud software giant Oracle (ORCL). Markets will be looking for confirmation of continued strong growth in OCI cloud infrastructure revenue, particularly demand linked to artificial intelligence.