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Economic calendar: Will retail sales data move USD?

7:40 AM May 15, 2019

Summary:
- EUR traders wait for GDP contribution data
- US retail sales expected to increase slightly in April
- DOE report expected to show a 2.1 million barrel decline in oil stockpiles

10:00 am BST - Eurozone, GDP report for Q1 2019. The initial GDP reading for the first three months of 2019 showed that euro area expanded at the pace of 0.4% QoQ. Second release is unlikely to show a major deviation from this number and focus will be on contribution data. Note that, the US GDP report showed that a bulk of growth in Q1 resulted from increases in inventories and exports while consumption lagged.

1:30 pm BST - US, Retail sales for April. The US retail sales experienced an abrupt spike in April as they increased 1.6% MoM, the biggest monthly advance since September 2017. However, analysts suggest that April will not be so good. Median estimate hints at 0.2% MoM advance for the headline gauge and a 0.7% increase for the core one. 45 minutes later industrial production figures for April will be released and they are expected to show output remaining flat against last month.

1:30 pm BST - Canada, CPI inflation for April. Simultaneously to the US retail sales data, the Canadian  inflation report for April will be released. A minor acceleration from 1.9% YoY to 2% YoY is expected. In case the estimates are confirmed by the actual data, price growth would reach the midpoint of BoC’s target range. Nevertheless, significant uncertainty global economy is facing right now may cause Canadian central bankers to postpone any rate changes.

3:30 pm BST - DOE report on oil inventories. Oil prices moved higher yesterday as reports surfaced saying that Saudi Arabia production facilities has been attacked. However, yesterday’s API report showed a major build in oil inventories and in case this data is confirmed by DOE today, a pullback on the oil market may occur. Market consensus hints at 2.1 million barrel drop.

Central bankers’ speeches:
- 11:00 am BST - Riksbank’s af Jochnick
- 2:30 pm BST - Fed’s Quarles
- 3:15 pm BST - ECB’s Coeure
- 5:00 pm BST - Fed’s Barkin
- 5:30 pm BST - ECB’s Praet

Brent (OIL) is struggling within the key price zone ranging $70.30-71.10. Note that bulls managed to halt earlier decline at 50- and 200-session moving average therefore those technical hurdles may be seen as the first support levels to watch. Source: xStation5

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