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Economic calendar: Will US inflation print support tightening-pause concerns?

7:54 AM January 11, 2019

On the final trading day of the week investors will be served just two important data releases. UK data pack including GDP and production figures is set to published at 9:30 am GMT while the US CPI reading is due at 1:30 pm GMT. Apart from that, two ECB members will deliver their speeches today. Note that remarks from Fed and ECB officials significantly impact the FX market yesterday therefore today’s appearances should not be played down either.

9:30 am GMT - Data pack from the United Kingdom. The final Brexit deal vote in the UK parliament is scheduled for Tuesday next week. The outcome may make the United Kingdom’s situation a bit more clear and therefore make UK assets more responsive to domestic data than political developments. Having said that, GBP traders may want to keep track of the incoming data stream as it is likely to gain bigger importance soon. Production numbers scheduled for release today are expect to see some kind of improvement against last month’s data. Namely, the industrial production is viewed to increase 0.3% MoM in November while manufacturing data should show 0.4% advance. November’s GDP print is forecasted to show 0.1% MoM advance.

1:30 pm GMT - CPI inflation report from the United States. The recent lacklustre US data along with more dovish approach took by Fed members have spoiled moods on the USD market. Price growth remained muted as of late and unless inflation accelerates it seems unlikely that we will see more hawkish attitude. Having said that, today's relase will surely be closely watched by inventors. December’s data is expected to show further deceleration in price growth metrics. While core gauge should remain unchanged at 2.2% YoY, the headline measure is viewed dropping from 2.2% YoY to just 1.9% YoY.

Central bank speakers scheduled for today:

  • 8:20 am GMT - ECB’s Mersch

  • 4:00 pm GMT - ECB’s Visco

GBPUSD rushed higher on the back of the USD weakness recently. The pair broke above the 50-session moving average (green line) as well as the prize zone ranging 1.2660-1.2700. If the upward momentum can be sustained the next hurdle for the bulls may arise in the 1.3 area as the downward sloping trendline and 200-session moving average can be found there. Source: xStation5

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