Economic Calendar - Will Weak Asian PMIs Point to Weakness in Europe and the US?

Today's macroeconomic calendar appears to be quite extensive, but it is worth noting that a significant amount of important data has already been published during the Asian session. Below we present an overview of the most crucial releases, though it is also worth highlighting that the picture left behind by the PMI indices does not look great, which may also suggest slightly worse readings from a European or American perspective.

Australia (Labor market cooling)

The April labor market report brought a clear deterioration in economic health. The unemployment rate unexpectedly rose to 4.5% (the highest level since November 2021, vs. an expected 4.3%), while employment fell by 18.6k jobs (against an expected increase of 17.5k). The weakness is also confirmed by a decline in the participation rate to 66.7% and a jump in youth unemployment above 11%. The only positive divergence was a 0.8% increase in hours worked. These data bring the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) significantly closer to a pause in interest rate hikes in June.

Japan (Export blockbuster)

April brought a massive, better-than-expected rebound in Japanese foreign trade. The trade balance recorded a surplus of JPY 301.9 billion (the market expected a deficit of -JPY 29.7 billion), thanks to a 14.8% y/y surge in exports (forecast: 9.3%). On the other hand, March machinery orders fell by -9.4% m/m (worse than the projected -8.1%), but rose by 5.9% y/y, significantly beating the consensus (4.5%).

Strong AUD thanks to geopolitics, but only momentarily

The Australian dollar was one of the stronger currencies during yesterday's session, mainly due to hopes related to the Middle East. Today's data is leading to another wave of sell-offs on the AUD. The Aussie benefited from a wave of potential growth in industrial commodities, but today's data and the return of rising oil prices are weakening the currency once again.

Economic Calendar

• 09:15 France - Manufacturing PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: 52.2. Previous: 52.0.

• 09:15 France - Services PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: 46.4. Previous: 46.6.

• 09:30 Germany - Manufacturing PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: 51.1. Previous: 51.0.

• 09:30 Germany - Services PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: 47.2. Previous: 47.0.

• 10:00 Eurozone - Composite PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: —. Previous: 49.2.

• 14:30 USA - Initial Jobless Claims. Consensus: 210K. Previous: 211K.

• 14:30 USA - Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index (May). Consensus: 19.0. Previous: 18.0.

• 14:30 USA - Building Permits (Apr). Consensus: 1.37M. Previous: 1.39M.

• 14:30 USA - Housing Starts (Apr). Consensus: 1.45M. Previous: 1.41M.

• 15:45 USA - Manufacturing PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: 53.0. Previous: 53.8.

• 15:45 USA - Services PMI – Flash (May). Consensus: 51.1. Previous: 51.1.

AUDUSD erases almost all of yesterday's rebound and is back in the demand zone. Source: xStation5