Elections map - what Biden needs to win?

7:58 AM 4 November 2020

More and more results are available but it is still too early to call who won a 4-year term at the White House. Now it all comes down to states marked with grey colour on the map below. Excluding electoral votes from these states puts Biden at 245-216 lead against Trump. HOWEVER, Trump is currently leading in all of them.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - 100% of votes have been counted already and Trump leads with 50.1% support against 48.7% for Biden (votes do not sum up to 100% because of independent candidates). Nevertheless, some mail-in ballots are still to be received and counted

Georgia (16) - 92% counted. 51.9% for Trump, 46.8% for Biden

Michigan (16) - 61% counted. 53.8% for Trump, 44,6% for Biden

Pennsylvania (20) - 68% counted. 56.7% for Trump, 42.1% for Biden. Votes are to be received until Friday!

Wisconsin (10) - 93% counted. 51.2% for Trump, 47.3% for Biden

Source: RCP, XTB Research

As one can see, Biden has a winding road ahead if he is to win the White House. However, there is widespread belief that incoming mail-in ballots should favour Democrat candidate. Biden needs to win 25 more electoral votes to win elections - winning any 2 of the 5 aforementioned states would be enough.

Market optimism is waning - DE30 pulls back towards 12,000 pts.

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