The EURUSD fell below 1.19 again and is trading at its lowest level since March 10. The pair are currently testing the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement of the recent upward wave that started in early November, which coincides with the upper limit of the summer consolidation zone. As one can see TNOTE indicates that the dollar should be stronger. TNOTE returned to declines (yields to increases) after the Federal Reserve announced it will let the leverage ratio for big banks expire March 31st. Nevertheless, at the moment TNOTE is still close to the recent local lows.
Fed Chair Powell published an essay in the WSJ on the bank's activities during the pandemic. Unfortunately, this did not provide new guidelines for investors to follow. This means that there is currently no reason for the dollar to weaken.. The hope for the euro is of course a faster recovery from the pandemic hit, but at the moment there are no significant signs of improvement yet.
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As one can see, the area of 1.19-1.1850 is crucial. The next support is located around 1.1750. Today, an important aspect will be the closing level of the day candle. Exit above the 61.8 mark could lead to a further upward move. It is clear, however, that pro-decline tendencies dominate the market at the moment. On the other hand, the shape of the candles near the retracement indicates that some demand is still there. Source: xStation5
