Fed models point to minimal rise in inflation and stable growth

The Nowcast model from the Cleveland Fed shows that at this point for August we should expect minimal increases in CPI inflation on a monthly basis and a decline in inflation dynamics on an annual basis. Recall that for July CPI inflation scored zero growth!

The GDPNow model, on the other hand, continues the slight decline. Most likely, we should expect another negative revision tomorrow, given the rather weak PMI data or new home sales. At this point for Q3, the model indicates 1.6% growth.

Rather, this information should not change much before the key event of the week, the symposium in Jackson Hole. It's worth remembering that last year Powell reasserted the belief that inflation is temporary. This year, he is likely to reaffirm the need to fight inflation, while the market is expecting some signals regarding the QE program.

Nowcast. Source: Fed Cleveland

GDPNow. Source: Fed Atlanta

31 October 2025, 7:08 PM

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Fed models point to minimal rise in inflation and stable growth

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