Goldman Sachs (GS.US) presented a bullish forecast for copper market for 2023-24. GS analysts expect that price will jump from current $8500 per tone to $11,000 per tone next year, while in 2024 they see further advancement to $12,000 per tone.
The bank's analysts point out that production in Chile is not meeting targets, which means that the projected surplus for 2023-24 is at risk, while inventories are already close to record lows.
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“Another deficit in the market next year will take fundamental conditions to an unprecedented extreme in terms of tightness,” wrote GS analyst Nick Snowdon. “The sequential increase in policy targets and commitments to green transition, alongside a minimal supply response so far... have resulted in earlier and larger open-ended deficit conditions that essentially are already here, not beginning at some point in the future.”
COPPER prices still struggle to break above key resistance at $8600, which is marked with upper limit of the 1:1 structure, 200 SMA (red line) and 38.2% Fibonacci retracement of the downward wave launched in March 2022. As long as the price sits below, the road towards record highs mentioned by GS analysts remains closed. Source: xStation5