MACRO: UMich sentiment rises in tandem with inflation expectations

5:17 PM 16 April 2021
  • US Consumer Sentiment rises to 1-year high
  • Inflation expectations jumped to 9-year high

The University of Michigan's consumer sentiment for the US rose to 86.5 in April, from 84.9 in March however today's reading came in below analysts’ estimates of 89.6, a preliminary estimate showed. It is the highest reading since March 2020, but despite the significant gains registered during the last two months and distribution of stimulus checks the measure has recovered only part of the lost ground and is still far from February 2020's pre-pandemic level of 101.0.  Consumers' assessment of the current economic conditions increased to 97.2 in April from 93.0 in March. The index of consumer expectations--which reflects the balance of respondents anticipating improved business conditions in the next six months--was unchanged at 79.7.

US consumer sentiment improved in April, however is still far away from pre-pandemic levels. Source: Bloomberg via Zerohedge 

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 3.7 %, the highest level in nearly a decade; compared with 3.1% in March, while half of all consumers expected declines in unemployment, the highest level ever recorded.  For the next five years, Americans expect consumer prices to rise by 2.7%, down from the 2.8% registered the previous month.

"Consumers in early April reported surging economic growth and strong job gains due to record stimulus spending, low interest rates, and the positive impact of vaccinations", Surveys of Consumers chief economist, Richard Curtin, said. "The strength in current economic conditions reflects much larger than usual stimulus payments during the past year, and much larger than usual economic gains due to comparisons with last year's shutdowns.", he added.

It seems that an inflationary sentiment is building among US citizens. Source: Bloomberg via Zerohedge 

These tendencies are likely to intensify in the coming months, among others by further loosening the covid-related restrictions, which may turn out that the economy is overheated a year after the collapse.

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