Market Wrap – Data Confirms BoJ Intervention. Waiting for US ISM (05.01.2026)

• Japan Currency Intervention: Data from the Bank of Japan (BoJ) suggest that authorities conducted an FX intervention worth approximately 5.4 trillion yen. The yen strengthened momentarily against the US dollar, but we are observing a broader strengthening of the US currency across the general market.

• Solid UK Manufacturing Data: The final reading of the Manufacturing PMI for the UK came in at 53.7, which proved better than forecasts (53.3) and the previous reading (53.6). Despite this, UK100 (FTSE 100) contracts are recording declines of about 0.5% in low liquidity conditions.
• Labor Day in Europe: Most European markets remain closed today due to Labor Day celebrations, resulting in significantly reduced liquidity on the continent.
• Wall Street Situation: Futures on US indices (S&P 500, Dow Jones) show minimal gains or stabilization after reaching record levels in the previous session. Investors are reacting to strong tech results (including Apple) and a robust earnings season. After initial gains, the US100 is falling compared to yesterday's historical peaks.
• Gold: We are observing significant price drops for the bullion, which is trading around $4,565 per ounce, losing approximately 1.2% in value.
• Crude Oil: Oil prices saw gains during the first phase of the session, but after 12:00 PM CET, we are observing a clear negation of earlier moves. WTI is losing about 0.1%, while Brent is rising by less than 0.05%. Yesterday's strong increases were related to month-end flows and the closing of the June Brent crude futures contract, which adjusted to prices quoted on the physical market.
• Cocoa: Prices are pulling back after yesterday's strong gains. Excluding the recent futures rollover, prices reached their highest levels since mid-February.
• Bitcoin is strengthening by over 1% and has reached the $77,000 level.
• Important US Economic Data: Today at 4:00 PM CET, the ISM Manufacturing Index for the US will be published. A rebound to the 53.1 level is expected, compared to the previous level of 52.3. It is worth noting that the price sub-index is expected to rise to 80, which would be the first time it has exceeded this level since mid-2022.

It is said that the BoJ bought 5.4 trillion yen on the market yesterday. Source: Bloomberg Finance LP

The USDJPY lays above 200-SMA which should be considered as crucial support. Source: xStation5