Mixed US regional indices, Fed Goolsbee uncertain about September

4:19 PM 31 July 2023

Economic calendar for today's afternoon was very light and included only readings of 2 US regional indices for July - Chicago PMI and Dallas Fed manufacturing index.

  • Chicago PMI: 42.8 vs 43.3 expected (41.5 previously)

    • Index remains in contraction territory (<50 pts)

    • Improvement was weaker than expected

  • Dallas Fed manufacturing index: -20.0 vs -22.5 expected (-23.2 previously)

    • Expectations subindex drops to the lowest level since pandemic (-4.8) but drop is slowing

Manufacturing ISM index for July will be released tomorrow and is expected to show a small rebound compared to June - from 46.0 to 46.9 pts. Nevertheless, US manufacturing sector still looks to be a weak spot compared to services sector which is holding up well.

Goolsbee from Chicago Fed touched on the topic of monetary policy in his speech today, which was one of the first speeches from Fed official following last week's decision. Goolsbee seemed positive on inflation trends and said that he is uncertain what his decision in September will be. This suggests that some Fed members may not want another rate hike soon but a lot will of course depend on incoming data.

Moods on the markets are upbeat - indices are trying to resume gains while EURUSD is continuing to rebound starting on Friday. 

Source: xStation5

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