Morning wrap (03.11.2025)

Markets in Japan remain closed for Culture Day. Major currency pairs are trading within tight ranges. Investors are focusing on tomorrow’s RBA decision and today’s PMI and ISM data.

OPEC maintained its planned production increase of +137,000 barrels per day (in line with expectations) but announced a pause in hikes for Q1 2026 due to winter oversupply concerns — an unexpected shift that supported prices early in the week.

Fed Governor Waller voiced support for another rate cut in December, citing a weaker labor market and declining inflation despite macroeconomic uncertainty caused by the U.S. government shutdown.

He also added that he would accept a nomination for Fed Chair.

Trump ruled out sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, hinted at “secret plans” for Venezuela, and said U.S. troops “could be deployed” in Nigeria.

He also mentioned that he meets regularly with Nvidia’s Jensen Huang and does not intend to share Blackwell chips abroad.

Melbourne Institute inflation rose to 3.1% y/y (remaining elevated), household spending increased +0.2% m/m (weak), building permits jumped +12%, while ANZ job ads fell −2.2% (fourth consecutive decline).

The RBA is likely to keep rates unchanged on Tuesday.

The manufacturing PMI for October fell from 50.7 to 49.4, signaling renewed weakness in the production sector.

The private manufacturing PMI dropped from 51.2 to 50.6. Domestic demand remained stable, but exports weakened amid tariff-related uncertainty.