Morning Wrap (08.07.2025)

Indices across the Asia-Pacific region are gaining during the second session of the week, with increases ranging from 0.30% to 0.90%.

Trump stated that the August 1 tariff implementation date is “not 100% certain”, backtracking from previous, more decisive statements. This marks another shift following earlier postponements from April 9 to July 9, and then to August 1. While this provides more time for negotiations, it also extends the period of market uncertainty. Markets responded with U.S. dollar weakness, and the USD Index (USDIDX) is currently down 0.20%.

Despite overall dollar softness, the Japanese yen weakened after Trump reaffirmed the possibility of 25% tariffs on Japan. The USDJPY pair climbed to a two-week high, gaining 0.10% today.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised markets by holding interest rates at 3.85%, defying expectations of a 25 basis point cut (expected by over 90% of traders). The decision passed by a 6–3 vote.

The RBA said it needs more data—particularly the July CPI report—before making further moves. The AUDUSD pair spiked sharply in response to the shift in rate expectations.

The RBA emphasized that maintaining price stability and full employment remains its primary objective. While inflation is easing, the labor market remains tight, and global uncertainty lingers. Traders now expect a possible rate cut in August, rather than an extended pause.

Australia’s business conditions index rose to its highest level since March 2024, driven by growth in sales, employment, and profits. Business confidence improved for the third straight month, surprising analysts amid expectations of a slowdown. This influenced RBA rate projections.

Trump announced the need to send more defensive weapons to Ukraine, marking a shift from his previous stance of limiting support. He expressed disappointment with Putin and the ongoing war, signaling worsening relations following the BRICS summit.

Taiwan has not yet received formal notice from the U.S. regarding new tariffs. Although a 32% tariff was announced back in April, the implementation timeline remains unclear.

Trump also declared that Iran will not become a nuclear state and announced planned talks, warning that a new military strike remains possible if necessary.