Morning Wrap (09.09.2025)

The Asia-Pacific session traded with mixed sentiment. Japan’s JP225 fell 0.95%, Chinese indices fluctuated between −/+0.50%, while Australia’s AU200.cash lost 0.50%

Gold gained 0.56% to a record $3,655/oz, and silver crossed $41 for the first time since 2011. The U.S. dollar weakened slightly (USDIDX: −0.11%).

In Australia, the NAB August survey showed business confidence fell to 4 (from 8), while conditions improved to 7 (from 5). Employment rose to 6, profitability to 4, and the order book turned positive for the first time in two years.

Trade envoy Akazawa confirmed that U.S. tariffs on Japanese goods, including cars, will be reduced by September 16. However, disputes remain unresolved, and Akazawa will continue talks in Washington.

Seoul rejected U.S. demands similar to those made to Japan, concerning a $350bn investment commitment. Negotiations are delayed as both sides search for solutions. 

China’s Ministry of Commerce held talks with Canadian officials, including the Premier of Saskatchewan and the parliamentary secretary to the Prime Minister. Discussions focused on trade, agriculture, and energy cooperation, signaling Beijing’s openness at both the federal and provincial level.

French Prime Minister François Bayrou was ousted in a confidence vote, though the outcome was expected. Market impact was limited, with the euro largely unmoved.

Markets are pricing aggressive Fed rate cuts, with the odds of a 50bp move in September depending on Thursday’s CPI report (currently 12%).

In contrast to the mainstream, Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon stated that Fed policy is not “exceptionally restrictive,” pointing to strong risk appetite. He warned that trade policy has slowed investment, but overall conditions remain favorable.